Monza host Cagliari at the U-Power Stadium on Monday 19 October, with kick-off at 5:30pm UK. It is a Serie A game between the league's most porous defence and one of its tightest: Monza have shipped 2.5 goals a game, the most in the division, while Cagliari have conceded 0.5, the 2nd fewest.
The standings split them too. Cagliari sit 5th on 13 points from six games, and Monza are 16th on 4 points with one win to their name.
Monza have lost four of their six league games, and their 9 goals scored come with 15 against. They are not short of attacking output: they average 1.5 goals a game, the 7th most in Serie A, and 6 shots on target a game, the 5th most. Both teams have scored in every one of their league games, the highest rate in the division, and 83% of them have gone over 2.5 goals, the 3rd highest.
Their latest outing was a 3-1 defeat at Lazio on 11 October. Before that came a 2-1 home win over Sassuolo, a 3-2 loss at Lecce and a 1-1 draw at Parma, and they opened their run with a 1-0 Coppa Italia win at Torino.
Cagliari have won four of six in the league and are 5th in the Serie A table. They are built on defence: they have kept clean sheets in half their games, the 2nd highest rate, and only 17% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals. At the other end they are modest, averaging 1 goal a game, the 6th fewest.
They are unbeaten in their last four in the league, though the latest was a 1-1 home draw with Juventus. Before that they won 1-0 at Udinese, 2-1 at Atalanta and 1-0 at home to Lecce. A 2-1 Coppa Italia home loss to Hellas Verona came on 3 September.
Monza possible starting lineup:
Törnqvist; Kouadio, Goglichidze, Carboni, Birindelli; Folorunsho, Akinsanmiro, Mangas; Ngonge, Mota, Varela
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Caprile; Zé Pedro, Mina, RodrÃguez, Obert; Adopo, Winks, Romano; Maldini, Massolin, Mendy
Samuele Birindelli has had a shot in six straight games, averaging 1.7 a game, and has also made a tackle in each of the six. He is 1.50 at bet365 to have a shot again.
Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 2.4 a game.
For Cagliari, Daniel Maldini has had a shot in six straight games at 2 a game and has hit the target in four in a row. He is 1.65 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target.
Alessandro Romano has had a shot in six straight games and is 1.36 at Ladbrokes to make it seven.
Paul Mendy has committed two or more fouls in four straight games, averaging 2.3, and is 2.00 at bet365 to do it again.
Our model leans to Monza, who are 2.45 at midnite, with a 41% chance of winning. Cagliari are 3.20 at Ladbrokes and we give them 31%, while the draw is also 3.20 and we put it at 28%. A draw is in play here, since 1-1 is the likeliest single score.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Monza win | 2.45 (midnite) | 41% |
| Draw | 3.20 (Ladbrokes) | 28% |
| Cagliari win | 3.20 (Ladbrokes) | 31% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 (midnite) | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 (bet365) | 49% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, though we make Monza slightly more likely to win. The model projects 1.41 goals for Monza and 1.21 for Cagliari, and puts both teams scoring at 54%. Monza's record of scoring and conceding in every game points the same way, while Cagliari's meanness at the back is the counterweight. The next most likely scores are 1-0 and 2-1, both to Monza.
The player runs sit comfortably alongside that. Birindelli and Maldini both have six-game shot runs behind them, and a builder of Birindelli for a shot, Romano for a shot, Yerry Mina for a tackle and Mendy for a foul comes to 2.85 combined.