Belarus host Finland at 19:45 UK on Tuesday 6 October, ten days after the two drew 0-0 in Finland.
Finland have since scored nine goals in three matches, third of all 54 teams. Belarus have conceded two. Both have kept two clean sheets from three, and the goalless first meeting is the reason neither record has been tested properly yet.
Belarus beat San Marino 4-0 on Saturday, drew 0-0 in Finland and lost 2-0 in Albania to open the group. Twelfth of 54 for goals conceded at 0.67 a game and joint second for clean sheet rate. None of their matches has had goals at both ends, which is joint lowest of 54. The number that defines them is fouls: 17.67 a game, second of all 54 teams, with three cards a game to go with it.
Finland beat Albania 2-1 on Saturday and won 7-0 in San Marino to open the group, with the 0-0 against Tuesday's hosts in between. Third of 54 for scoring at three a game, joint second for goals conceded at 0.33, and fifth for corners at 6.33. Team sheets are not confirmed.
Match markets are not yet priced for this fixture, so there is no model-versus-price comparison to make. The competition rankings carry it instead.
Finland lead on every forward number: three goals a game to 1.33, 5.33 shots on target to 3.33, 6.33 corners to 3.33. The defensive records are almost level, 0.33 goals against to 0.67, with two clean sheets each.
The caveat on Finland's scoring is that most of it arrived in one afternoon. Nine goals in three matches, seven of them against San Marino, means the other two games produced two. That is a different side from the one the goals-per-game column describes.
Belarus have not played in a match with goals at both ends all window, which is joint lowest of 54 teams. Across the competition that happens in 46.6 per cent of matches, against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues, so a low rate here is less surprising than it would be in club football.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
The foul markets are the clearest thing on the page by some distance. Belarus commit 17.67 fouls a game, second of all 54 teams, and take three cards, seventh of 54. Finland commit 13.67 and take 1.33. Everything about that pairing points the same way.
Kirill Pechenin has made two or more tackles in three straight for the hosts, which fits a side built on breaking play up.
For Finland, Leo Walta has had two or more shots in three straight. With no prices up yet, the live fixture page is where to watch the markets open.
Finland have the better forward line and the better defensive record, and the two drew 0-0 when they met ten days ago. The 7-0 in San Marino is the number doing most of the work in Finland's averages and the least work in predicting this.
The read is a low-scoring match with Finland marginally the better side, and a foul count that should be among the highest of the round.
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