Moldova host Slovakia at 19:45 UK on Tuesday 6 October at the Stadionul CPTF in Chișinău, ten days after losing 2-0 in Slovakia.
Slovakia carry two numbers that sit at opposite ends of the same table: 8.33 corners a game, the most of all 54 teams, and 7.67 fouls, the fewest. They get into the final third constantly and stop almost nobody doing the same.
Moldova beat Kazakhstan 2-1 on Friday, drew 1-1 with the Faroe Islands and lost 2-0 in Slovakia to open the group. Twenty-sixth of 54 for scoring at one a game and thirty-third for goals conceded. Their standout number is discipline: fifty-second of 54 for cards at a third of a card a game.
Slovakia drew 1-1 in the Faroe Islands on Friday, which was a stumble, having beaten Kazakhstan 2-1 and Moldova 2-0. Thirteenth of 54 for scoring and twelfth for goals conceded, with that corner count leading the competition. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 2.06 goals for Slovakia and 0.73 for Moldova, a combined 2.79, and then agrees with the market about all of it.
Slovakia to win is rated 68.5 per cent against a margin-free implied 67.5. Moldova at 7.50 are 12.1 against 12.6. Over 2.5 goals is 52.8 against 54.6 and both teams to score is 45.1 against 46.4. No selection differs from the model by more than two points, which makes this the most accurately priced fixture of Tuesday's card.
That is itself the finding. When the model and the market land this close across every market, the interest moves to the parts of the page the match markets do not cover.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
The corner count is the number to carry into this fixture. Slovakia's 8.33 a game is the highest of all 54 teams in the competition and Moldova's 4.67 is mid-table, so the set-piece markets are the one place these two are genuinely far apart.
The foul markets run the other way and just as hard. Slovakia commit 7.67 fouls a game, fewest of all 54, and Moldova pick up a third of a card a game, fifty-second of 54. This is not a fixture that argues for bookings in either direction.
In the player markets, Tomáš Suslov has had two or more shots in three straight for Slovakia and Petru Popescu has done the same for Moldova.
Slovakia are the better side, won the first meeting 2-0 and are priced for it to within a point of the model. There is no edge in the match markets here and it would be dishonest to invent one.
The read is a Slovakia win, with the corner markets the only place these two sides are far enough apart for the gap to be worth anything.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.