Estonia host Iceland at 19:45 UK on Tuesday 6 October at the Sportland Arena in Tallinn, ten days after the two drew 1-1 in Reykjavik.
Both have conceded one goal in three matches, which puts them joint second of 54 teams, and both have kept two clean sheets. The difference is entirely at the other end.
Estonia beat Luxembourg 1-0 on Saturday, drew 0-0 in Bulgaria and drew 1-1 in Iceland to open the group. Five points from three and only one goal conceded. They score 0.67 a game, thirty-fifth of 54, and none of their matches has gone over 2.5 goals. The number that marks them out is fouls: fourth of all 54 teams at 17.33 a game.
Iceland have scored 2.33 a game, sixth of 54, winning 3-0 in Luxembourg and 3-0 at home to Bulgaria on Saturday either side of the draw with Estonia. Seventh of 54 for corners at six a game and eleventh for shots on target. Team sheets are not confirmed.
Match markets are not yet priced for this fixture, so there is no model-versus-price comparison to make. The competition rankings carry it instead.
The defensive records are identical and the attacking ones are not. Iceland score 2.33 goals a game to Estonia's 0.67, take six corners to 5.33 and have six shots on target a game to 5.33. On every forward number Iceland lead, and on the two defensive ones the sides are level.
Iceland have also been in two matches past two and a half goals while Estonia have been in none, which is the clearest split on the page. Both of Iceland's were 3-0 wins, so the goals came at one end.
That is worth holding on to. Across the competition both teams score in 46.6 per cent of Nations League matches against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues, and these two sit at 33 per cent each. A fixture between the joint second-best defensive records in the competition is not where that rate goes up.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
Orri Óskarsson appears three times on this fixture's streak board: a shot on target in three straight, two or more shots in three straight, and a foul in three straight. Mikael Egill Ellertsson has also fouled in three straight.
For the hosts, Maksim Paskotsi has hit the target in three straight, which is unusual for a defender and tells you something about where Estonia's chances come from. They are twelfth of 54 for corners.
Estonia's 17.33 fouls a game is the fourth-highest in the competition, against Iceland's 12.33, and both sides carry 2.33 cards a game. The foul markets are the one place this fixture is lopsided.
Iceland have the better forward line by a distance and the same defensive record. Estonia have home advantage, five points from three and a habit of keeping matches to one goal.
The read is a low-scoring game that Iceland should edge, with the foul counts the clearest market on the page. Estonia have not played in a match with three goals in it all window.
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