Luxembourg host Bulgaria at 19:45 UK on Tuesday 6 October at the Stade de Luxembourg, ten days after winning 2-1 in Sofia.
Both have had a rough week since. Luxembourg lost 3-0 at home to Iceland and then 1-0 in Estonia; Bulgaria drew 0-0 with Estonia and were beaten 3-0 in Iceland.
Luxembourg's win in Sofia is the only result of substance either side has managed against anyone but the other. They are thirty-fifth of 54 for scoring at 0.67 a game and forty-first for goals conceded at 1.67, with no clean sheets. The number that stands out is cards: fifth of 54 at 3.33 a game, on sixteenth-ranked fouls, which means the bookings are arriving faster than the fouls that cause them.
Bulgaria have scored once in three, which is forty-fifth of 54. They did keep a clean sheet against Estonia. They are seventh of 54 for cards at three a game and thirty-fifth for fouls, the same pattern as their hosts. Team sheets are not confirmed.
Match markets are not yet priced for this fixture, so there is no model-versus-price comparison to make. The competition rankings carry it instead.
There is not much between these two on anything. Luxembourg score 0.67 a game to Bulgaria's 0.33 and both concede 1.67. Bulgaria have slightly the better shot count, four on target a game to 3.33, and slightly the better corner count, four to three.
Two thirds of each side's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, which is ninth of 54 and higher than either team's scoring record would suggest. That is a function of how much they have conceded rather than anything they have created: between them they have scored three goals in six matches and conceded ten.
Across the competition, both teams score in 46.6 per cent of Nations League matches against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues. These two are at 33 per cent each, which is the twenty-fifth rate of 54 and well below the competition's own line.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
The cards are the story. Luxembourg are fifth of 54 teams at 3.33 a game and Bulgaria seventh at three, and neither is in the top fifteen for fouls committed. Two sides collecting bookings at that rate without fouling at it is an unusual combination, and it is the one place this fixture is genuinely distinctive.
Neither squad has a player on a streak longer than two games in the attacking markets, which fits sides that have scored three goals between them in six matches.
Match and player markets are both unpriced here for now. The live fixture page carries them as they open.
Luxembourg are at home and have already beaten this opponent once in the window, which is more than Bulgaria can say about anybody.
The read is a tight, low-scoring game between two sides short of goals at either end, with the cards markets carrying more of it than the result. Neither has scored more than twice in a match in this competition.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.