Northern Ireland host Georgia at 19:45 UK on Monday 5 October at Windsor Park, ten days after winning 1-0 in Tbilisi.
The two records are mirror images. Northern Ireland have not conceded a goal in this competition, first of 54 teams. Georgia have not scored one, fifty-first of 54.
Northern Ireland won 3-0 in Ukraine on Friday, which was comfortably their best night of the window and came after a 0-0 with Hungary and the 1-0 in Georgia. Three matches, three clean sheets, and a hundred per cent clean sheet rate that leads all 54 teams. They are fiftieth for corners at 1.67 a game, so almost none of it comes from set pieces.
Georgia have lost 1-0 in Hungary, drawn 0-0 with Ukraine and lost 1-0 at home to Monday's opponents. Three matches without a goal. The underlying numbers are not as bleak as that: ninth of 54 for corners at 5.67 a game and thirty-third for shots on target, with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia hitting the target in four of his last five. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.16 goals for Northern Ireland and 0.99 for Georgia, a combined 2.15, and then agrees with the market about essentially everything.
Northern Ireland to win is rated 39.8 per cent against a margin-free implied 38.4. Georgia are 30.8 against 30.3. Under 2.5 goals is 63.7 against 62.5 and both teams to score, No, is 57 against 55.7. No selection on this fixture differs from the model by more than a point and a half, which makes it the most accurately priced game of Monday's card.
What the numbers do agree on is the shape. Two of the three lowest-scoring teams in the group meeting at a ground where the home side have not conceded is not a fixture that argues for goals.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
Georgia foul considerably more than Northern Ireland, ranking tenth of 54 at 14.33 a game against thirty-fifth at 11, and the player lines sit on that side. Otar Kakabadze has committed a foul in all five of his last five and in three straight, priced 1.22. Giorgi Kochorashvili and Anzor Mekvabishvili have each fouled in three straight.
In the attacking markets, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has hit the target in four of five at 1.44 and Giorgi Kvernadze has had a shot in four of five at 1.33. For the home side, Isaac Price has hit the target in three straight at 1.44 and Trai Hume has made two or more tackles in three straight.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Northern Ireland have the better of this on every number that matters and the price says so without generosity. The market and the model are in agreement across all four main markets, which is a finding rather than a disappointment.
The read is a low-scoring home win, with the under and the Georgian foul counts the parts of the card with the most behind them. A side that has not conceded in three against a side that has not scored in three is not a fixture to take goals in.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.