Switzerland host North Macedonia at 19:45 UK on Tuesday 6 October at the swissporarena in Lucerne, ten days after winning 3-0 in Skopje.
The shot counts are the most lopsided on the whole card. Switzerland manage 8.67 shots on target a game, first of 54 teams. North Macedonia manage 0.33, fifty-third of 54.
Switzerland have won all three: 3-0 in Skopje, 3-0 in Scotland and 2-1 over Slovenia on Saturday. Fourth of 54 for scoring at 2.67 a game, joint second for goals conceded at 0.33, and first for shots on target. They also book almost nobody, ranking fifty-second of 54 at a third of a card a game. Every one of their matches has gone over 2.5 goals.
North Macedonia have lost all three without scoring: 0-3 to Tuesday's opponents, 2-0 in Slovenia and 0-2 at home to Scotland on Saturday. Fifty-first of 54 for goals scored, forty-eighth for goals conceded, fifty-second for corners and fifty-third for shots on target. They are, however, fourth of 54 for cards at 3.67 a game. Team sheets are not confirmed.
Match markets are not yet priced for this fixture, so there is no model-versus-price comparison to make. What the competition rankings give instead is this.
The model projects 2.65 goals for Switzerland and 0.49 for North Macedonia, a combined 3.14, which is the widest projected margin of any fixture on Tuesday's card.
It also projects 15.47 shots for the hosts against 6.04, and 6.05 on target against 2.11. The visitors' actual figure in this competition has been a third of a shot on target a game, so the projection is already being generous to them.
One caution on the goals side. Switzerland have had every match go over 2.5, but across the competition as a whole both teams score in only 46.6 per cent of Nations League games against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues, and a one-sided fixture is where that gap is widest. A 3-0 and a 2-1 clear the same total and settle the other market differently.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
The Swiss attacking runs are the material here. Dan Ndoye has hit the target in three straight and had two or more shots in three straight. Zeki Amdouni has hit the target in three straight and Johan Manzambi has had two or more shots in three straight.
In the foul markets, Remo Freuler and Zachary Athekame have each committed a foul in three straight, which is notable for a side ranked forty-sixth of 54 for team fouls.
The card markets sit on the visitors. North Macedonia are fourth of 54 at 3.67 cards a game and Switzerland fifty-second at 0.33, which is close to the widest disciplinary gap in the competition.
Switzerland have won this fixture 3-0 already, lead the competition for shots on target and face a side that has not scored in three. There is not much of a case for the alternative.
The read is a comfortable home win in which the shot counts and the visitors' card count are the better-defined markets. With no prices up yet, the live fixture page is where to watch them arrive.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.