Spain host the Czech Republic at 19:45 UK on Saturday 3 October at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere in Oviedo, with a perfect record from five matches and a group already most of the way won.
They are first of 54 teams in this competition for goals scored at 3.5 a game. They are also yet to keep a clean sheet, and that second fact is where the only interesting price on this fixture lives.
Spain beat Croatia 4-1 on Tuesday and won 3-2 at England before it, and their last five going back into the World Cup reads 1-0 against Argentina, 2-0 in France and 2-1 against Belgium. Five wins from five against four of the best sides in Europe and South America. They also have the fiftieth-ranked card count of 54 teams at half a card a game, so they do it without fouling.
The Czech Republic have lost both of theirs at home, 1-2 to Croatia and 0-2 to England, and arrive on a run of one win in seven stretching back to the World Cup. Half a goal a game scored, two conceded, two shots on target a game and one corner. They are fifty-third of 54 for fouls at 7.5 a game, which is a long way from a side planning to break the match up. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 3.06 goals for Spain and 0.47 for the Czech Republic, a combined 3.53, and rates Spain 87.8 per cent to win against a margin-free implied 88.2. The result market is priced to the model's own number and has nothing in it.
The gap is on the other line. Both teams to score is available at 3.25, an implied 29 per cent, and the model has it at 35.9. That is the largest positive gap on Saturday's card, and it rests on a simple observation: Spain have conceded in every one of their last five matches, against England, Croatia, Argentina, France and Belgium.
The honest counterweight is that the Czech Republic are not any of those teams. They have two shots on target a game in this competition, and our own work on this competition shows that international football shares its goals out far less evenly than club football, with both teams scoring in 46.6 per cent of Nations League games against 52.2 per cent in England. A 4-0 is the most likely single scoreline on this page.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Vasilis Fotias, who has one completed match in our database this season, in which he showed six yellow cards across 21 fouls. One game is not a trend, and a 21-foul match between two of the least fouling sides in the competition is not where it would repeat.
Player prop markets are not yet priced for this fixture, so there is no bet builder board. What the team numbers point at is volume: Spain are projected for 22.4 shots against 7.8, and 8.7 on target against 2.7. The shot and corner lines carry this fixture rather than the result.
The live fixture page carries the projections as they update through the day.
Spain win, and no part of the result market argues otherwise. The one number worth a look is both teams to score, where a price of 3.25 sits against a side that has conceded in each of its last five and a model reading of 35.9 per cent.
The read is a comfortable home win in which the visitors' total absence of shots is the argument against the only interesting price on the page. Spain's shot and corner counts are the safer ground.
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