Updated 5 November 2026.
Independiente host Deportivo Riestra at the Estadio Libertadores de América on Friday 6 November, kick-off 22:15 UK, in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol Clausura. The hosts sit 5th on 24 points from 16 games. Riestra are 15th on 11, with one win from their 16 games.
Riestra have drawn eight of their 16 and kept things tight at the back, but they rarely score, and they arrive off a 3-0 home defeat to Talleres Córdoba.
Independiente have won 6, drawn 6 and lost 4. Their last five have brought no win: a 1-1 draw at Defensa y Justicia on 2 November, a 0-1 home loss to Boca Juniors, a 1-1 draw at Racing Club, a goalless draw at Talleres Córdoba and a 1-4 home defeat to Instituto. Their goals record ranks 12th most in the league at 1.19 per game, and they take 5.56 corners a game, the 2nd most.
Both teams to score has landed in 56% of their games, the 6th highest rate in the competition. Their foul count is the 8th fewest at 11.25 a game.
Riestra's last five were a 0-3 home loss to Talleres Córdoba, a 1-0 defeat at Instituto, a 1-1 draw with Unión Santa Fe, a 1-0 loss at San Lorenzo and a 1-1 draw with Central Córdoba. They score 0.48 a game, the 2nd fewest in the league, and only 26% of their matches see both sides score, the lowest rate in the division. Just 13% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, also the lowest.
They also commit more fouls than any other side, 16.13 a game. Their cards come to 3.16 a game, the 4th most, and they concede the 10th fewest goals at 0.94 a game.
Independiente possible starting lineup:
Mele; Arias, Valdez, Arrayago, Zabala; Marcone, Meza, Pérez Curci; Montiel, Ávila, Palais
Deportivo Riestra possible starting lineup:
Arzamendia; Miño, Quintana, Paz, Bracamonte; Céliz, Watson, Sánchez; Ramírez, Alonso, Díaz
Santiago Montiel has had a shot in eight straight games, averaging three a game, and he's 1.04 at bet365 to take one more. Maximiliano Meza has hit the target in five in a row at two a game and is 1.75 at Ladbrokes. Chimy Ávila has managed two or more shots in four straight, averaging three, and is 1.25 at bet365 to keep that going.
Iván Marcone has made at least one tackle in ten straight games at 2.5 a game, the longest run on either side.
For Riestra, Mariano Bracamonte has had a shot in six consecutive games and is 1.60 at Ladbrokes. Milton Céliz has had two or more shots in four straight at 2.8 a game and is 2.20 at Ladbrokes.
We back Independiente, who are 1.65 at Ladbrokes to win; our model gives them a 52% chance. The draw is 3.60 at Coral and Riestra are 6.50 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Independiente win | 1.65 (Ladbrokes) | 52% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Coral) | 30% |
| Deportivo Riestra win | 6.50 (bet365) | 18% |
| Both teams to score | 2.40 (Ladbrokes) | 36% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.50 (bet365) | 31% |
We expect 1.31 goals from Independiente and 0.65 from Riestra, and our prediction is a 1-0 home win. A goalless draw is the next most likely score at 15%, so a draw is in play, but we still make Independiente clear favourites. They keep a clean sheet in 52% of our simulations.
In the player markets, Montiel has had a shot in eight straight games and Ávila two or more shots in four.
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra kicks off at 22:15 UK on Friday 6 November 2026 at the Estadio Libertadores de América. It is a 2026 Liga Profesional de Fútbol Clausura fixture, with Independiente 5th on 24 points and Deportivo Riestra 15th on 11 after 16 games.
We predict a 1-0 win for Independiente in this 2026 Liga Profesional Clausura match, the likeliest of all scorelines at 18%. We give the home side a 52% chance of winning, with the draw at 30%.
Independiente are favourites at 1.65 with Ladbrokes to win the 2026 Liga Profesional Clausura game, and our model puts their win chance at 52%. Deportivo Riestra are 6.50 at bet365, with our model giving them 18%.
Our model gives both teams to score a 36% chance in this Liga Profesional Clausura match, with the best price 2.40 at Ladbrokes. Only 26% of Riestra's games this season have seen both sides score, the lowest rate in the league.
Independiente are 5th on 24 points from 16 games in the 2026 Liga Profesional Clausura, while Deportivo Riestra are 15th on 11 points from 16. Riestra have one win, eight draws and seven defeats.
Santiago Montiel has had at least one shot in 8 straight Liga Profesional games, averaging three per game, and he is 1.04 at bet365 to extend it. Chimy Ávila has had two or more shots in 4 straight.
Independiente's predicted XI is Mele; Arias, Valdez, Arrayago, Zabala; Marcone, Meza, Pérez Curci; Montiel, Ávila, Palais. Deportivo Riestra's is Arzamendia; Miño, Quintana, Paz, Bracamonte; Céliz, Watson, Sánchez; Ramírez, Alonso, Díaz.