Fluminense host Coritiba at the Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho on Friday 9 October 2026, with kick-off at 01:30 UK time in the Campeonato Brasileiro. The tension is simple. Fluminense are 5th and lead the division in shots on target, while Coritiba, 9th, sit second from bottom for shots on target and last for corners and fouls.
Coritiba arrive after a 5-0 beating at Vasco, which makes this a shaky moment to travel to one of the league's most reliable scoring sides. Our model makes the hosts clear favourites, though the prices already say the same.
Fluminense have 48 points from 28 games (13 wins, 9 draws, 6 defeats) and a goal difference of +8. They score the 3rd most goals per game in the division and have the highest both-teams-to-score rate, so their matches rarely stay quiet. The flip side is defensive: only 18% clean sheets, the 6th lowest rate in the league.
Their latest run is mixed but ended well. A 3-1 win at Corinthians on 20 September followed a 2-1 Copa Libertadores defeat at Platense and a 3-1 loss at Atletico-MG. Before that came a 2-0 home win over Platense and a 1-0 win against Vasco. Both of their recent defeats came away from home, and this is a home game.
Coritiba have 38 points from 28 (10 wins, 8 draws, 10 defeats) and a goal difference of -6. They concede the 4th most goals per game in the league, yet they keep clean sheets in 21% of games, which ranks 9th highest.
They beat Corinthians 2-1 and won 3-2 at Remo, then lost 1-2 to Mirassol, drew 3-3 with Athletico PR and were thrashed 5-0 at Vasco. They have conceded 13 in those five games.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Fabio; Guga, Thiago Silva, Millan, Arana; Hercules, Martinelli; Serna, Ganso, Soteldo; Hulk
Coritiba possible starting lineup:
Morisco; Bustos, Jacy, Coser, Melo; Santos, Gomez; Lopes, Josue, Fabinho; Rocha
Hulk is the headline name. The striker has had 2+ shots in five straight games, averaging 3.8, and 2+ shots on target in four straight. That shots-on-target run is the longest of its kind in the division. He is also a 1.80 shot on that line at bet365.
At the back, Guga has made a tackle in seven straight games and averages 1.9 per game. For Coritiba, Thiago Santos has a tackle in 12 straight, the best run on either side, though the 1.07 price leaves nothing to chase.
On the Coritiba attack, Pedro Rocha has hit 1+ shots in five straight and averages three a game, and has a shot on target in four of his last five. Josue and Breno Lopes have each cleared 1+ shots in four of five. Do not expect volume from a side that ranks that low for shooting, but these three will take what comes.
Our model also leans on fouls. Ganso for 2+ fouls at 3.40 and Kevin Serna for 2+ at 2.38 both rank second for likelihood but sit far lower in the pricing, which is the kind of gap we flag. On the Coritiba side, Tiago Coser for 1+ fouls at 1.50 shows a similar split.
Fluminense are 1.48 with Ladbrokes, the draw is 4.40 and Coritiba are 7.50 at bet365. Our model gives the hosts a 64.2% chance of winning, against a 67.6% implied by the best price. In other words the market has it right, and if anything it is a touch keener on Fluminense than we are, so there is no value in the home win itself.
| Market | Best price | Implied | Statz model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense win | 1.48 | 67.6% | 64.2% |
| Draw | 4.40 | 22.7% | 21.9% |
| Coritiba win | 7.50 | 13.3% | 14.0% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 50.0% | 52.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.83 | 54.6% | 56.8% |
The goals markets sit close to our numbers as well. Both teams to score at 2.00 is a shade longer than the model's 52.2%, and over 2.5 at 1.83 is a little under its 56.8%. Those are small edges, and Fluminense's league-high BTTS rate points the same way, but Coritiba's low shot volume is a reason not to push it.
Our model expects roughly 2.08 goals for Fluminense and 0.88 for Coritiba, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11.2%. The draw is not far behind, though: 1-1 is next at 10.4%, with 2-1 at 9.9% and 1-0 at 9.8%. So a 2-0 is the headline, but a tight game is a real possibility.
Statz prediction: Fluminense 2-0 Coritiba.