Palmeiras host Bahia at Allianz Parque in the Campeonato Brasileiro on Fri 9 Oct 2026, with kick-off at 01:30 UK. It is a meeting of the division's best defence and one of its most direct attacks: the hosts are 2nd on 57 points, while Bahia sit 6th on 46 and arrive having scored freely and conceded plenty.
The tension is simple. Palmeiras have conceded the fewest goals in the division at 0.75 per game at home, but Bahia score in streaky bursts and have found the net in most of their recent matches. Something has to give, and our model thinks it will mostly be Bahia.
Palmeiras are 2nd after 28 games, with 16 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats, and a goal difference of +26 (47 scored, 21 conceded). Their home numbers are the story: the 2nd most goals at 1.68 per game, the fewest conceded, and the highest clean-sheet rate in the league at 43%. They also win the 9th most shots on target and rank 2nd for corners, so territory is rarely a problem.
The recent run is less convincing. Palmeiras drew 0-0 away at Grêmio, lost 3-2 at LDU Quito in the Copa Libertadores, beat São Paulo 2-0 and drew 0-0 at Botafogo. Two goalless results in five is a reminder that this side can be hard to break down, which cuts both ways.
Bahia are 6th with 12 wins, 10 draws and 6 defeats, and 43 goals for against 35 against. On the road they score the 4th most at 1.54 per game, and the 6th most shots on target at 5.0 backs that up. They are leakier, though: both teams score in 68% of their away games, the 6th highest rate in the league.
Their form was strong until last time out. Bahia won four in a row, including 2-0 at Vitória, 3-2 over Internacional, 3-2 at Bragantino and 2-1 over Remo, before a 2-1 loss at Athletico PR. They have scored in each of those five.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Carlos Miguel; Giay, Barboza, Gómez, Murilo; Piquerez, Marlon Freitas, Andreas Pereira; Mauricio, Vitor Roque, López
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Ronaldo; Marcos Victor, Kanu, Duarte, Juba; Acevedo, Erick, Nestor; Pulga, Veliz, Olivera
Vitor Roque has had at least one shot in nine straight games for Palmeiras, averaging 2.2 per game. It is a reliable run, but the market has already priced it at 1.01, so there is nothing to find there.
The most interesting streak belongs to Bahia's Alejo Veliz, who has had two or more shots in nine straight games at an average of three, a mark that ranks 2nd in the division. The same player has also committed a foul in five straight games, and our model ranks him the likeliest in the competition to do so again, yet the price is only 1.29, which is a gap the market has not fully closed.
Nicolás Acevedo has made a tackle in 14 straight games and is 7th in the competition on that board, though 1.04 gives you nothing for it. Bahia's Erick has had a shot in eight straight, and Palmeiras midfielder Mauricio has hit the target in seven in a row, the longest such run in the league.
Where the model and the form book part company is on Palmeiras fouls. Arthur Gabriel and Marlon Freitas both rank 2nd on our likelihood list but sit far lower on the market's, a disparity of 14 or 15 places. That is a projection, though, not a streak, so treat it as a lean rather than a pattern.
| Market | Best price | Implied | Statz model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras win | 1.61 | 62.1% | 56.0% |
| Draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 25.2% |
| Bahia win | 5.25 | 19.1% | 18.8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 58.8% | 52.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 59.9% | 52.1% |
The match result market and our model agree closely on the draw and the away win, so the market has those right. The one difference is the home price: 62.1% implied against our 56.0%, which means Palmeiras are a touch shorter than we make them. The same goes for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, where the prices look a few points generous to the goals side. If anything, the numbers argue for patience on the main markets rather than value in them.
Our model makes Palmeiras clear favourites with 1.80 expected goals to Bahia's 0.96, but it also gives Palmeiras only a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet. The most likely single scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 12.0%, narrowly ahead of 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-0 (10.3%), so the draw is a live outcome here. Our pick is a narrow home win, with 1-1 the scoreline to respect most.
Statz prediction: Palmeiras 2-1 Bahia. With 1-1 at the top of the scoreline list, a stalemate would hardly surprise.