Internacional host Corinthians at 23:30 UK on Wednesday 7 October at the Estádio Beira-Rio, in a fixture between two sides who have forgotten how to score.
Internacional are first of 20 clubs in Brazil for fouls at 15.14 a game and the model projects nearly eighteen here. Both teams sit in the bottom quarter of the division for goals scored.
Internacional have lost three of their last five, including 1-0 at São Paulo and 3-2 at Bahia, with a 2-1 win at Chapecoense in between. They score 1.07 goals a game, sixteenth of 20, while ranking second for corners at 6.04 and first for fouls. Only 39 per cent of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, which is seventeenth.
Corinthians arrive in worse form still: 1-3 at home to Fluminense, a 0-1 home defeat to Estudiantes and a 2-1 loss at Flamengo. Eighteenth of 20 for scoring at 1.04 a game, but third for goals conceded at 1.14 and third for clean sheet rate. They are fifth of 20 for cards at 2.71 a game. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.26 goals for Internacional and 0.90 for Corinthians, a combined 2.16, which is a low total even by this fixture's standards.
The result market is priced almost exactly: Internacional 43.4 per cent against a margin-free implied 43.9, Corinthians 25.3 against 27. The totals are not. Under 2.5 goals at 1.67 is projected at 63.1 against an implied 56.3, a gap of nearly seven points. Both teams to score, No, at 1.91 carries six, and under 1.5 at 3.20 carries five.
All three point the same way, and the season records support them. Neither side scores much, Corinthians have the third-best defensive record in the division, and 39 and 43 per cent of their respective matches have cleared two and a half goals.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Felipe Fernandes de Lima, who has no completed matches in our database this season, so there is no card or foul average to read from. Given what follows, that is the one number worth having.
This fixture is a foul count with a football match attached. Internacional lead the division at 15.14 a game and the model projects 17.98; Corinthians are ninth at 13.29 and fifth for cards.
The individual runs are long. Rodrigo Garro has committed a foul in ten straight games, priced 1.20. Bruno Gomes has fouled in six straight at 1.08 and in all five of his last five. Breno Bidon has fouled in six straight and Braian Aguirre in five.
At the other end there is less. Yuri Alberto has hit the target in four of his last five at 1.36 and Memphis Depay has had two or more shots in four straight at 1.62.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Internacional are at home and marginally the better side, and the result market has that right to within half a point. The disagreement is entirely about goals, and the model, both clubs' records and the division's own numbers all land on the same side of it.
The read is a low-scoring home win or draw, with the fouls and cards markets carrying far more of this fixture than the scoreline. Two sides this short of goals, and a home team that fouls more than anyone in Brazil, is not the setting for an open game.
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