Vasco da Gama welcome Remo to the Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 10pm UK. The hosts are 14th in the Campeonato Brasileiro but arrive on a run of four straight wins. Remo are 19th and have lost five of their last six in the league.
Vasco beat Botafogo 2-1 on Wednesday and have scored 11 goals in their last four league and cup wins. Remo have taken one point from their last five league games, and only one side in the division has conceded more per game.
Vasco have 34 points from 28 games, with nine wins, seven draws and 12 defeats. The recent turnaround is sharp: in their last five they drew 0-0 away to Santa Fe in the Copa Sudamericana, then won 2-1 at Grêmio, 2-0 at home to Santa Fe, 5-0 against Coritiba and 2-1 at Botafogo.
The attacking numbers back that up. Vasco have the 2nd most shots on target in the league at 5.46 a game and the 4th most corners at six a game. At the other end they have kept a clean sheet in only 14% of games, the 5th lowest rate, and 62% of their matches have seen both teams score.
Remo have 24 points from 29 games, with five wins, nine draws and 15 defeats. They conceded late to lose 2-3 to Coritiba, lost 0-1 to Flamengo and 1-2 at Bahia, then went down 1-2 to Santos before a 1-1 draw with Grêmio on Wednesday.
They concede 1.66 goals a game, the 2nd most in the division, and keep clean sheets in just 10% of matches. They manage 3.86 shots on target a game, the 5th fewest. Remo's goals record is 33 for and 48 against.
Vasco da Gama possible starting lineup:
Léo Jardim; Paulo Henrique, Robert Renan, Alan Saldivia, Cuiabano; Santiago Sosa, Thiago Mendes, Alan Lescano; Adson, Facundo Colidio
Remo possible starting lineup:
Marcelo Rangel; Marcelinho, Marllon, Zé Ivaldo, Marlon; Zé Welison, Zé Ricardo, Yago Pikachu; Vitor Bueno, Jajá, Gabriel Taliari
Cuiabano has made at least one tackle in 18 straight games, averaging 3.4 across the run, the 2nd longest such streak in the division. Right-back Paulo Henrique is on 15 in a row at 2.1 a game.
Thiago Mendes has had two or more shots in four straight games and is 2.75 at bet365 to get two or more again. He has had at least one shot in each of his last five and is 1.40 at bet365 for one.
Facundo Colidio has put a shot on target in four of his last five, with 11 across the run, and is 1.20 at bet365 to do it again. Santiago Sosa has had a shot in six straight games and is 1.40 at bet365.
For Remo, Gabriel Taliari has had a shot in nine straight games, averaging 2.1, and is 1.10 at Ladbrokes. Zé Welison has made a tackle in 12 in a row at 2.5 a game.
We back Vasco da Gama to win, and the bookmakers agree: Ladbrokes have them at 1.33, with Remo 10.00 at bet365 and the draw 5.25 at Ladbrokes. Both teams to score is 1.95 at bet365, over 2.5 goals is 1.57 and over 1.5 goals is 1.17, both at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Vasco da Gama win | 1.33 (Ladbrokes) | 69% |
| Draw | 5.25 (Ladbrokes) | 20% |
| Remo win | 10.00 (bet365) | 11% |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 (bet365) | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 60% |
Our model has Vasco scoring 2.28 goals to Remo's 0.84, and 2-0 is the likeliest score at 11%. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely, and Vasco keeping a clean sheet is 43%.
Remo concede in nearly every game and Vasco have the shots on target to exploit that, so our prediction is Vasco da Gama 2-0 Remo.