Botafogo host Chapecoense at the Estádio Nilton Santos on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 10pm UK time in the Campeonato Brasileiro. It is a 13th-placed side against the team propping up the table, and the gap shows in the numbers: Chapecoense have conceded more goals per game than anyone in the league, while Arthur Cabral has had a shot in 20 straight matches.
Botafogo sit 13th in the Brasileiro table on 36 points from 30 games, with nine wins, nine draws and 12 defeats. They have scored 43 and conceded 48. They have been involved in plenty of goals: both teams have scored in 70% of their games, the 2nd highest rate in the division, and 63% have gone over 2.5 goals, the 3rd highest.
Recent results have been flat. They drew 1-1 away at Coritiba on 12 October, lost 2-1 at home to Vasco five days earlier and were beaten 2-0 at Mirassol before that. The best recent night was a 3-2 home win over Grêmio in mid-September. At the back, Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in just 13% of games, the 4th lowest rate.
Chapecoense are 20th on 18 points from 29 games, with three wins, nine draws and 17 defeats. They have scored 30 and conceded 61, an average of 2.1 against per game, the most in the league. They score the 2nd fewest goals per game (1.03), put the 2nd fewest shots on target (3.59) and have kept a clean sheet in only 7% of matches, the 2nd lowest rate.
The last two results were heavy: a 4-1 home loss to Athletico PR on 12 October and a 4-0 defeat at Vitória before that. Their last win came on 6 September, 2-1 at Corinthians.
Botafogo possible starting lineup:
Gabriel Batista; Vitinho, Ferraresi, Marçal, Alex Telles; Danilo, Medina; Montoro, Ziyech, Matheus Martins; Arthur Cabral
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Anderson; Dudu, João Paulo, Kauan Faria, Bruno Pacheco; Yago Felipe, Bruno Matias; Garcez, Giovanni Augusto, Bolasie; Tulio Eduardo
Arthur Cabral has had at least one shot in 20 straight games, averaging 2.7 a game, the 3rd longest run in the competition, and the 1+ shots line is 1.01 at bet365.
Nahuel Ferraresi has two live runs: a tackle in 19 straight games and a foul in 14 straight. The foul line is 1.30 at bet365, and the model rates him among the likeliest players in the game to commit one.
Matheus Martins has had a shot in 15 consecutive games at 2.3 a game, so he is a regular threat from the left.
For Chapecoense, Maurício Garcez has had a shot in seven straight games, averaging three per game, and is 1.14 at bet365. Tulio Eduardo has committed a foul in nine straight games, at two a game.
We back Botafogo, who are 1.36 with Ladbrokes to win. The model gives them a 65% chance of victory, against 21% for the draw and 14% for a Chapecoense win, who are 9.00 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Botafogo win | 1.36 (Ladbrokes) | 65% |
| Draw | 5.25 (Coral) | 21% |
| Chapecoense win | 9.00 (bet365) | 14% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 62% |
Our model projects 2.24 goals for Botafogo and 0.97 for Chapecoense. Our predicted score is 2-0, with 2-1 and 1-1 right behind it, so a draw is in play, but the model still favours the home side clearly. Botafogo are projected 7.88 shots on target to Chapecoense's 3.51.
Both teams to score is 1.75 at bet365 and over 2.5 goals is 1.50, which fits two sides who have both been involved in plenty of goals. In the player markets, Alex Telles has made a tackle in each of his last five games and is 1.20 at bet365, and Ferraresi's foul run backs up that 1.30 line.