Mirassol and Internacional meet at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in the Campeonato Brasileiro, with kick-off at 12am UK on Saturday 17 October (Friday night in Brazil). Only a point and two places separate the sides, 15th against 17th.
The model gives Mirassol the edge at home, but it expects a tight game.
Mirassol sit 15th in the Brasileirao table on 33 points from 30 games, with 8 wins, 9 draws and 13 defeats. They have scored 34 and conceded 44. Their last two outings were away from home and brought a 1-1 draw at Bragantino and a 1-0 defeat at Bahia, which followed a 2-0 home win over Botafogo.
Defensively they are leaky. They have kept a clean sheet in only 7% of their games, and both teams have scored in 67% of their matches.
Internacional are 17th on 32 points with 7 wins, 11 draws and 12 defeats, 33 scored and 38 conceded. They concede 1.27 a game and have kept clean sheets in 20% of games. Their last five were a 2-3 home defeat to Santos, a 2-1 win at Chapecoense, a 1-0 loss at São Paulo, a 2-1 home win over Corinthians and a 1-1 draw at Grêmio.
Internacional commit 15.67 fouls a game, and only 40% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals.
Mirassol possible starting lineup:
Walter; Igor Formiga, João Victor, Reinaldo, Willian Machado; Neto Moura, Denilson, Edson Carioca; Alesson, Eduardo, Bruno Santos
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Anthoni; Bruno Gomes, Gabriel Mercado, Juninho, Alexandro Bernabei; Rodrigo Villagra, Braian Aguirre, Thiago Maia; Johan Carbonero, Vitinho, Alerrandro
Rodrigo Villagra has made at least one tackle in 14 straight games for Internacional, averaging 1.9 a game, and is 1.10 at bet365 to extend the run.
Igor Formiga matches that run for Mirassol: a tackle in each of his last 14, at 2.7 a game. He is also ranked top of the model's list for two or more shots, at 2.20.
Braian Aguirre has had a shot in six in a row, averaging 2.3, and has committed a foul in seven straight. The shots price is 1.35 at Ladbrokes and the fouls price 1.17 at bet365.
Neto Moura has made two or more tackles in each of his last five, averaging 2.2 a game, and that is 1.30 at bet365.
Bruno Gomes has fouled in eight straight games and is 1.29 at Midnite to make it nine.
We back Mirassol narrowly, at 2.20 with Ladbrokes to win. The model gives them a 40% chance, with the draw at 29% and Internacional at 32%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Mirassol to win | 2.20 (Ladbrokes) | 40% |
| Draw | 3.50 (Ladbrokes) | 29% |
| Internacional to win | 3.40 (bet365) | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (bet365) | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 (bet365) | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 (bet365) | 49% |
Our model projects 1.41 goals for Mirassol and 1.23 for Internacional, and the Statz prediction is Mirassol 1-1 Internacional. A draw is in play, though we make Mirassol slightly more likely to win. Both teams scoring is the likelier outcome at 55%, in line with Mirassol's 67% rate across the season, while the goal line is a coin flip.
For a built bet from the player runs, Aguirre to have a shot, Neto Moura two tackles, Bruno Gomes a foul and Edson Carioca a shot on target comes to 3.06 combined. Edson Carioca has hit the target in four of his last five.