Athletico PR welcome Palmeiras to the Arena de Baixada on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 23:30 UK, in a meeting between the 3rd and 2nd-placed sides in the Campeonato Brasileiro. Ten points separate them after 30 games each, and it pairs the division's 3rd most prolific attack with its meanest defence.
Athletico have 53 points and have scored 49. Palmeiras have 63 points from 18 wins, 9 draws and just 3 defeats, and they have conceded only 22 goals all season.
Athletico PR come in unbeaten in their last three. They won 4-1 at Chapecoense on 12 October, with that result following a 2-2 home draw with Atlético-MG and a 2-1 win over Bahia. Before that came a 3-3 draw at Coritiba and a 3-1 defeat at Cruzeiro. They score 1.63 goals a game, the 3rd most in the league, and concede 1.17, the 3rd fewest. They also hit the target 5.17 times a game, the 6th most.
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their league games, the highest rate in the league, and they concede 0.73 a game, the fewest. Their last five include a 2-1 win at Fluminense in the Copa Libertadores on Thursday, a 4-1 win over Corinthians on 11 October and a 1-0 win over Bahia two days earlier, with a goalless draw at Grêmio before that. They win a lot of corners too, 6.10 a game, the 2nd most.
Both sides draw plenty of fouls and give them away: Athletico commit 13.53 a game, the 5th most, and Palmeiras 13.30, the 7th most. Athletico pick up 2.03 cards a game, the 2nd fewest in the league.
Athletico PR possible starting lineup:
Mycael; Aguirre, Arthur Dias, Esquivel, Gilberto; Luiz Gustavo, Jádson, Mendoza; João Cruz, Leozinho, Viveros
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Carlos Miguel; Murilo, Fuchs, Barboza, Khellven; Piquerez, Marlon Freitas; Andreas Pereira, Mauricio, Arias; López
Kevin Viveros has had a shot on target in eight straight games and 2+ shots in each of those eight, and the shots-on-target run is the longest in the division. He is 1.30 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target.
Stiven Mendoza has had a shot in five in a row and averages two a game, available at 1.20 at Ladbrokes.
For Palmeiras, Mauricio has had a shot in 18 straight games, 5th longest run in the competition. José Manuel López has had three or more shots in four straight games and is 2.00 at bet365 to make it five.
Marlon Freitas has had a shot in each of his last five. He is 1.30 at bet365 for a shot and 1.25 for a foul.
We back Palmeiras, narrowly. The away win is 2.32 at bet365, with the draw at 3.40 at bet365 and Athletico PR at 3.10 at Ladbrokes. Our model gives Palmeiras a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Athletico 32%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Athletico PR win | 3.10 (Ladbrokes) | 32% |
| Draw | 3.40 (bet365) | 30% |
| Palmeiras win | 2.32 (bet365) | 38% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (bet365) | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 (bet365) | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (Midnite) | 73% |
We predict 1-1, the likeliest single score at 14%, and a draw is clearly in play, though we make Palmeiras slightly more likely to win. Both teams score in 52% of our simulations, and we project 1.19 goals for Athletico and 1.31 for Palmeiras. Palmeiras keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, Athletico 27%.
Athletico are projected 14.49 shots to Palmeiras' 13.20, and 5.02 on target to 4.49, so the hosts should have the greater share of efforts. That points to the shot markets: Viveros and Mendoza for Athletico, Mauricio and López for the visitors. Our prediction is Athletico PR 1-1 Palmeiras.