Updated 23 October 2026.
Real Salt Lake welcome St. Louis City to America First Field on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 1:30am UK time. It's a Major League Soccer meeting between Real Salt Lake, 10th in the Western Conference with 36 points, and St. Louis City, 2nd in the Western Conference with 51. That is fifteen points apart, but our model barely separates them. St. Louis striker Rafael Navarro has had a shot in 19 straight games.
Real Salt Lake come in off a 3-1 win at Sporting KC on 18 October, and before that a 1-1 draw at home to San Jose. St. Louis arrive having lost 3-2 at Minnesota on 17 October, their first defeat after six wins and three draws in their previous nine.
St. Louis sit 2nd in the Western Conference of the Major League Soccer standings on 51 points from 30 games, with 14 wins, 9 draws and 7 defeats and 56 goals scored against 41 conceded. Before the defeat at Minnesota they drew 0-0 with Vancouver, thrashed LA Galaxy 6-2 and won 3-0 at New York RB. They score 1.87 goals per game, the 7th most in MLS, and concede 1.37, the 6th fewest, and they commit 14 fouls per game, the 3rd most.
Real Salt Lake are on 36 points from 30 games with 10 wins, 6 draws and 14 defeats, and 45 goals scored against 48 conceded. They have won two and lost six of their last ten, the wins coming at Sporting KC and in a 3-0 home win over New England on 27 September. In between they lost 2-1 at Philadelphia and drew 1-1 with San Jose.
Real Salt Lake's strength is volume on target: they average 5.37 shots on target per game, the 5th most in MLS. Defensively they have kept a clean sheet in only 10% of games, the 4th lowest in MLS, and both teams have scored in 70% of their matches, the 7th highest rate. St. Louis are on the same 70%.
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Cabral; Quinton, De Fougerolles, Henry, Sanabria; Spierings, Caliskan, Lobjanidze; Marczuk, Guilavogui, Solans
St. Louis City possible starting lineup:
Bürki; Polvara, Baumgartl, Fall, Wallem; Durkin, Totland, Edelman; Jeong, Navarro, Becher
Rafael Navarro has had at least one shot in 19 straight games for St. Louis, averaging 2.8 a game, and a shot on target in seven in a row, averaging 1.7. He is 1.36 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Sergi Solans has put a shot on target in six straight games for Real Salt Lake, averaging 1.5, and has committed a foul in each of those six, averaging 2.0. He is 1.33 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target and 1.25 at Midnite to commit a foul.
Dominik Marczuk has had a shot in eight consecutive games and is 1.20 at bet365 to make it nine. Morgan Guilavogui has had a shot in seven straight games and has made a tackle in each of his last eight.
In midfield, Chris Durkin has made a tackle in 11 straight games for St. Louis, averaging 2.5 a game.
We make Real Salt Lake 37% to win, the draw 27% and St. Louis 36%, so we back the home side by a whisker at 2.38 with Midnite, with the draw at 3.75 and St. Louis at 2.75, both with bet365. Navarro, Solans and Marczuk are all on long shot runs.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake win | 2.38 (midnite) | 37% |
| Draw | 3.75 (bet365) | 27% |
| St. Louis City win | 2.75 (bet365) | 36% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 (bet365) | 81% |
We expect 1.5 goals for Real Salt Lake and 1.46 for St. Louis. Our prediction is Real Salt Lake 1-1 St. Louis City, the likeliest single score at 12%, though we make Real Salt Lake marginally more likely to win than the visitors. Both teams to score comes in at 61%, and the clean-sheet chance is 23% for Real Salt Lake and 22% for St. Louis.
Four player lines have each landed in all of the player's last five games: Navarro to have a shot on target (1.36 at bet365), Solans to have a shot on target (1.33 at Ladbrokes), Marczuk to have a shot (1.20 at bet365) and Stijn Spierings to commit a foul (1.25 at Midnite).
Kick-off at America First Field is at 1:30am UK time on Sunday 25 October 2026.
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at around 12%, though we make Real Salt Lake marginally more likely to win than St. Louis.
Real Salt Lake are the bookmakers' favourites at 2.38 with Midnite, with St. Louis City at 2.75 and the draw at 3.75, both with bet365. We give the hosts 37%, the draw 27% and the visitors 36%.
Both teams to score is 1.44 at bet365 and we give it a 61% chance. Both sides have scored in 70% of their matches this season.
Rafael Navarro has had a shot in 19 straight games for St. Louis, while Real Salt Lake's Dominik Marczuk has had one in eight in a row and Morgan Guilavogui in seven.
St. Louis City are 2nd in the Western Conference on 51 points from 30 games and Real Salt Lake are 10th in the Western Conference on 36 points.
Real Salt Lake: Cabral; Quinton, De Fougerolles, Henry, Sanabria; Spierings, Caliskan, Lobjanidze; Marczuk, Guilavogui, Solans. St. Louis City: Bürki; Polvara, Baumgartl, Fall, Wallem; Durkin, Totland, Edelman; Jeong, Navarro, Becher.