Updated 23 October 2026
Columbus Crew welcome Toronto to Lower.com Field on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 20:30 UK. These two are neighbours in the standings: Toronto are 10th in the Eastern Conference on 36 points from 30 games, Columbus 11th on 35 from the same number. The Crew have won four of their last five league games, they are at home, and we give them a 57% chance of the win.
We put both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Columbus beat Cincinnati 2-0 last Sunday and before that took Charlotte 3-1 at home. The only loss in the last five was a 3-2 defeat at Orlando City, which followed wins over CF Montréal and Inter Miami. Still, their season record is 10 wins, 5 draws and 15 defeats, with 46 goals scored and 47 conceded.
Both teams to score has landed in 70% of Columbus games, the 7th highest rate in the league, and 70% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the 6th highest. They average 1.53 goals a game, the 14th fewest, and 4.57 shots on target, the 9th fewest. At the back they concede 1.57 a game, the 13th fewest, and have kept a clean sheet in 20% of matches. Their corner count of 5.33 a game is the 8th most.
Toronto won 2-0 at New York Red Bulls last weekend, drew 3-3 with Orlando City and beat CF Montréal 2-1, after back-to-back defeats at Nashville and St. Louis. Their season is built on draws, 12 of them alongside 8 wins and 10 defeats, with 46 goals for and 55 against.
Toronto concede 1.83 a game, the 10th most, and have kept a clean sheet in just 13% of games. Both teams to score has landed in 77% of their matches, the highest rate in the league. Like Columbus they score 1.53 a game, and their 4.43 shots on target a game are the 7th fewest.
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Schulte; Moreira, Herrera, Amundsen, Zawadzki; Habroune, Gomes, RodrÃguez; Lennon, Méndez, Tapia
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Gavran; Franklin, Gomis, Monlouis, Pereira; Dorsch, Osorio, Corbeanu; Mihailovic, Morgan, Sargent
Gonzalo Tapia has had a shot in seven straight games, averaging two a match, and he has also committed a foul in each of those seven. A shot is 1.02 at bet365 and a foul is 1.15 at midnite.
Brais Méndez is the Crew's shot-taker. He has had three or more shots in four of his last five games, with 22 in total across that stretch, an average of 4.4. Three or more shots is 1.50 at bet365.
Theo Corbeanu has had a shot in six straight games at two a match, and a shot on target in each of his last five, which is 1.75 at Ladbrokes.
Niklas Dorsch has committed a foul in ten straight games, averaging 2.3 a match, and has made a tackle in six in a row at 2.7 a game. A foul from him is 1.13 at midnite.
We back Columbus Crew to win, and the best price on the home side is 1.57 at Ladbrokes. Toronto are 5.25 at bet365 and the draw is 4.50 at bet365. Both teams to score is 1.53 at bet365, and over 2.5 goals is 1.44.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew win | 1.57 (ladbrokes) | 57% |
| Draw | 4.50 (bet365) | 24% |
| Toronto win | 5.25 (bet365) | 19% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 58% |
We predict Columbus Crew 1-1 Toronto, the single likeliest scoreline at 11%, though we make the Crew 57% to win against 24% for the draw. We project Columbus at 1.94 goals to Toronto's 1.06, and 2-1 and 2-0 are the next likeliest scores. We give Columbus a 35% chance of a clean sheet and Toronto 14%, and Toronto have conceded in 87% of their games.
Tapia and Corbeanu both have shot runs, Méndez has been a heavy shooter lately, and Dorsch's foul run has reached ten games.
The match is at Lower.com Field on Saturday 24 October 2026, with kick-off at 20:30 UK.
We predict 1-1 as the likeliest single scoreline, though we make Columbus Crew 57% to win, with Toronto at 19% and the draw at 24%.
Columbus Crew are favourites at 1.57 with Ladbrokes. Toronto are 5.25 and the draw is 4.50, both at bet365.
Both teams to score is 1.53 at bet365 and our model gives it a 57% chance. It has landed in 70% of Columbus games and 77% of Toronto games this season.
Gonzalo Tapia has had a shot in seven straight games for Columbus, and Theo Corbeanu has had a shot in six in a row for Toronto. Niklas Dorsch has committed a foul in ten straight games.
In the Eastern Conference, Toronto are 10th with 36 points from 30 games and Columbus Crew are 11th with 35 points from 30.
Columbus Crew: Schulte; Moreira, Herrera, Amundsen, Zawadzki; Habroune, Gomes, RodrÃguez; Lennon, Méndez, Tapia. Toronto: Gavran; Franklin, Gomis, Monlouis, Pereira; Dorsch, Osorio, Corbeanu; Mihailovic, Morgan, Sargent.