Portland Timbers host Colorado Rapids at Providence Park in Major League Soccer, with kick-off at 3.30am UK on Sunday 18 October (7.30pm local on Saturday). Two sides separated by five points in the Western Conference meet in contrasting form: Portland have lost four of their last five, while Colorado have drawn their last two.
Portland are 10th in the West on 33 points, with Colorado one place above in 9th on 38. Portland's games leak goals at both ends, while Colorado have been much harder to score against.
Portland have won 9, drawn 6 and lost 14 of their 29 games, scoring 51 and conceding 56. Their last five read three straight defeats, at Dallas (2-1), at home to Atlanta (1-0) and at San Jose (3-1), then a wild 3-3 draw at Sporting KC and a 2-0 loss at LA Galaxy on Thursday. They have two wins in their last ten.
Portland's goals against are the 5th most in the league, they keep clean sheets in just 3% of games (the 2nd lowest) and both teams have scored in 76% of their matches, the 3rd highest rate. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of their games.
Colorado have won 11, drawn 5 and lost 13, scoring 41 and conceding 41. They have drawn three of their last five league games: 2-2 with Minnesota on Thursday, 1-1 with San Jose and 3-3 with Seattle, with a 3-2 defeat at LA Galaxy in between and a 1-0 win over CF Montréal at the back of the run.
Colorado's defence is the sturdier of the two: the 8th fewest goals against and clean sheets in 31% of games, the 5th highest rate. They are also physical, with the 2nd most fouls and the 2nd most cards per game, while Portland commit the fewest fouls in the league.
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Pantemis; Hernández, Waterman, Miller, Fory; Ortiz, Caicedo Barrera; Lassiter, Da Costa, Velde; Janssen
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Hansen; Rosenberry, Holding, Williams, Navarro; Frederick, Ojediran; Phillip, Aaronson, Whittaker; Sadiq
Kristoffer Velde is the standout. He has had a shot in 28 straight games, the 2nd longest such run in the competition, at 3.2 per game, and is 1.05 at bet365 to make it 29.
Ariel Lassiter has registered a shot in eight in a row at two a game, and he has managed two or more in four of his last five. He is 1.33 at bet365 for 2+ shots.
Vincent Janssen has shot in six straight, averaging 1.8, and is 1.03 at midnite to keep that going.
For Colorado, Morgan Whittaker has had two or more shots in each of his last five games, averaging 3.6 and reaching seven in one of them. He is 1.14 at bet365 for 2+.
Miguel Navarro has committed a foul in ten straight games, and he is 1.20 at midnite to extend it, while Loïc Williams has fouled in six in a row and is 1.30 at midnite.
We back Portland, a slight favourite at 2.05 with bet365 to win at home, with the draw at 3.75 (midnite) and Colorado at 3.25 (bet365). Our model gives Portland a 41% chance of winning, to 27% for the draw and 32% for Colorado.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Portland win | 2.05 (bet365) | 41% |
| Draw | 3.75 (midnite) | 27% |
| Colorado win | 3.25 (bet365) | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 56% |
We expect 1.55 goals from Portland and 1.36 from Colorado. 1-1 is the likeliest score at 13%, so a draw is in play, though we make Portland the more likely winner. Our prediction is Portland 1-1 Colorado. Both teams to score is the stronger goals lean given Portland's record at the back, and over 2.5 is a little better than even at 56%.