Sporting KC host Real Salt Lake at Children's Mercy Park in Major League Soccer on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 01:30 UK. The home side have shipped more goals per game than anybody in the division, and they meet a visiting attack that gets more shots on target than most. Real Salt Lake sit 11th in the Western Conference with 33 points, and Sporting KC are 15th with 22.
Sporting KC have lost 19 of their 29 games and conceded 72 times, an average of 2.48 per game, which is the most in the league. They have kept a clean sheet in just 3% of matches, the 2nd lowest rate. Their last five results swing wildly: a 4-0 loss at Nashville SC on Thursday, a 3-3 draw with Portland before that, a 2-1 defeat at Seattle, then a 2-0 win at Houston and a 4-3 loss to Philadelphia. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of their games, the highest rate in the league.
Going forward they are short of firepower: 1.21 goals per game is the 2nd fewest, and their shots on target average of 4.24 is the 3rd fewest. They also win the 2nd fewest corners.
Real Salt Lake have won 9 and lost 14, scoring 42 and conceding 47. They arrive off a 1-1 draw with San Jose on Thursday, after a 2-1 defeat at Philadelphia, a 3-0 home win over New England, a 2-0 loss at Seattle and a 3-0 home defeat to Vancouver. Only one win in their last ten, though, so the run is rough.
Their strength is in how many chances they create: 5.28 shots on target per game is the 6th most, and both teams have scored in 69% of their matches, the 9th highest rate. They have kept a clean sheet in only 10% of games, the 5th lowest.
Sporting KC possible starting lineup:
Cleveland; Reynolds, Miller, Karic, Meyer; Harris, Agyabeng, Ramos; Afrifa, Calheira, André Luiz
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Cabral; De Fougerolles, Quinton, Henry, Sanabria; Spierings, Caliskan; Marczuk, Hezarkhani, Guilavogui; Solans
Sergi Solans leads the Real Salt Lake line and has had a shot on target in five straight games, on 1.6 per game. He is 1.28 at Ladbrokes to make it six.
André Luiz is Sporting KC's most direct threat, with a shot in seven straight games at 4.3 per game. He has been on target in four of his last five and is 1.14 at bet365 for a shot on target here.
Dominik Marczuk has had a shot in seven consecutive games and is 1.14 at bet365 to extend the run, while team-mate Morgan Guilavogui has a shot in six straight and a tackle in seven.
In defence, Justin Reynolds has made at least one tackle in ten straight games, and K. Henry has done so in nine, averaging 2.3 per game.
We back Real Salt Lake, who are 2.20 at bet365 to win, with the model giving them a 40% chance. Sporting KC are 2.82 and the draw is 3.80. Both teams to score is 1.40 and over 2.5 goals is 1.48, and both fit the shape of two sides that concede freely.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting KC win | 2.82 (bet365) | 34% |
| Draw | 3.80 (bet365) | 26% |
| Real Salt Lake win | 2.20 (bet365) | 40% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 (bet365) | 61% |
We expect 1.49 goals from Sporting KC and 1.65 from Real Salt Lake. 1-1 is the likeliest score, so a draw is in play, though we make Real Salt Lake the more probable winner. Both sides conceding at this rate points to goals at both ends. Our prediction is Sporting KC 1-1 Real Salt Lake.