Houston Dynamo host Dallas at Shell Energy Stadium on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 1:30am UK. Both sides are in the top five of the Western Conference, and the game sets one of the league's tightest defences against one of its more productive attacks.
Dallas sit 3rd on 50 points from 29 games, with 53 goals scored. Houston are 5th on 46 points, and have scored just 39 while conceding 37. Dallas have a points edge, but our model makes this near enough a coin flip, with Houston a shade ahead.
Houston Dynamo have turned into a draw specialist. Their last five league games brought three draws, two defeats and no wins, and each of the draws came with goals: 3-3 at San Diego on Thursday, 2-2 at Minnesota four days earlier and 2-2 at home to Cincinnati before that. In between came a 0-2 home defeat to Sporting KC, and the run began with a 1-0 loss at San Jose. Five of their last ten were draws.
That sits oddly with how Houston usually play. They have the lowest both-teams-to-score rate in MLS at 41% and the lowest over 2.5 goals rate, also 41%. Their defence is the real strength: they have kept a clean sheet in 38% of games, the 4th highest in the league, and concede 1.28 goals a game, the 5th fewest. Goals are harder to come by, at 1.34 a game, the 8th fewest.
Dallas arrive in better shape. They won 1-0 against Seattle on Thursday and have taken three wins from their last five, losing only 3-2 at Charlotte. The other results were 1-0 against LAFC, 0-0 with Austin and 2-1 over Portland. They score 1.83 goals a game, the 8th most in the league, and win more games than they draw.
Dallas are also one of the more physical sides, with 12.79 fouls a game, the 7th most, and 2.31 cards a game, also the 7th most. Houston are among the cleanest, with 10.14 fouls a game, the 5th fewest.
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Bond; Andrade, Antônio Carlos, Halter, Negri; Artur, Herrera, Samassékou; Ennali, Bogusz; Guilherme
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Daniel; Moore, Ibeagha, Urhoghide, Norris; Kaick, Ramiro, Johansson; Valiente, Moreno; Musa
Petar Musa has had at least one shot in 25 straight games for Dallas, averaging 3.3 a match, and he is 1.02 at bet365 to make it 26.
Mateusz Bogusz has had two or more shots in nine straight games and averages 3.8 a match, with that run priced at 1.17 at bet365.
Osaze Urhoghide is a centre-back who keeps appearing in the tackle and foul counts. He has made a tackle in seven straight games, committed a foul in five straight, and had a shot in four straight. The shot is 2.38 at bet365, and a foul is 1.20 at Midnite.
Logan Farrington has had a shot in nine straight games and a shot on target in seven, with the latter priced at 1.53 at bet365. Shaq Moore at 3.75 at bet365 for a shot on target is a price our model rates higher than the bookmakers do.
We back Houston, narrowly, at 2.20 to win at bet365, with our model giving them the best chance of the three results. Dallas are 3.10 and the draw is 3.50. A draw is a real possibility here.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo to win | 2.20 (bet365) | 39% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 29% |
| Dallas to win | 3.10 (bet365) | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (Midnite) | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 (bet365) | 48% |
Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 14%, though we make Houston slightly more likely to win the game. We project 1.37 goals for Houston and 1.24 for Dallas, with both teams to score at 54%. Houston's defence keeps the total modest, and the over 2.5 goals market is close to even at 48%.
For a bet builder, Dallas's regular fouls and shooters fit the model's view of the match: Valiente to have a shot, Urhoghide and Norris to commit a foul, and Guilherme for Houston to have a shot on target combine to 2.25.