Austin host Vancouver Whitecaps at Q2 Stadium on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 1:30am UK time, and the gap between the sides in the Western Conference is wide. Vancouver lead it on 52 points. Austin are 14th on 31, with 54 goals conceded in 29 games.
The hosts do have a reason for belief. When the sides last met, Austin won 2-1 in Vancouver on 13 September. Our model still makes Vancouver clear favourites.
Austin are 14th in the Western Conference with seven wins, ten draws and twelve defeats. Their last two games hurt: a 3-1 loss at LAFC on Thursday followed a 4-1 home defeat to Nashville SC. Before that came a 3-3 draw with San Diego and a 0-0 at Dallas.
The attack is the concern. Austin score 1.28 goals a game, the 4th fewest in the league, and their shots on target average of 4.03 is the lowest of all 30 clubs. They do get involved in open games, though: both teams have scored in 69% of their matches, the 9th highest rate.
Vancouver lead the Western Conference but come in without a win in four. They drew 0-0 at St. Louis on Thursday and 1-1 at LAFC, lost 3-1 at Chicago Fire and drew 3-3 with DC United. Their last win was a 3-0 at RSL.
The underlying numbers remain strong. Vancouver score 2.1 goals a game, the 4th most, and concede 1.03, the 2nd fewest. They have kept a clean sheet in 41% of games, the 3rd highest rate, and average 5.97 shots on target, the 2nd most. Their foul count of 14 a game is the 3rd most in the league, and they win the 3rd most corners.
Austin possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Desler, Hines-Ike, Rosales, Biro; Sánchez, Ervin Torres; Facundo Torres, Gallagher, Uzuni; Vazquez
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Takaoka; Ocampo, Laborda, Johnson, Priso; Cubas, Larraz; Sabbi, Gauld, Diaby; White
Andrés Cubas has made at least one tackle in 23 straight games, the longest such run in the division, at 4.7 a game. Oliver Larraz sits beside him in midfield with a 15-game tackle run of his own.
Édier Ocampo has committed two or more fouls in each of his last four games and is 2.15 at midnite to do so again. He has committed at least one foul in all of his last five.
Brian White has had two or more shots in four straight games, averaging 3.5 a game, and is 1.08 at bet365 to do so again.
For Austin, Brandon Vazquez has registered three or more shots in three straight games, averaging 4 a game, and is 1.80 at bet365 to do it again. He has also hit two or more shots on target in each of those three, and that is 3.40 at bet365.
Facundo Torres has had a shot in ten straight games and is 1.17 at bet365 to extend the run.
We back Vancouver Whitecaps to win, and they are 1.60 at midnite. Austin are 4.75 at bet365 and the draw is 4.50.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Austin win | 4.75 (bet365) | 15% |
| Draw | 4.50 (bet365) | 20% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps win | 1.60 (midnite) | 65% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 (bet365) | 66% |
We predict a 2-1 win for Vancouver Whitecaps. Our model has them scoring 2.34 goals to Austin's 1.06, and it gives Austin only a 10% chance of keeping a clean sheet against 35% for Vancouver, so both teams to score is the likelier outcome. A draw is in play too, with 1-1 close to the top of the scoreline list, but the model leans clearly towards the visitors.