New England host Chicago Fire at Boston Stadium in Major League Soccer, with kick-off at 00:30 UK on Sunday 18 October 2026 (Saturday evening local time). Just one point separates the clubs: New England are 3rd in the Eastern Conference on 49 points from 29 games, and Chicago Fire are 4th on 48 from the same number.
Both sides score freely and concede freely, and the model makes this a game where both teams are more likely to score than not. Robert Lewandowski has had a shot in eight straight games for Chicago.
New England have won 15 of their 29, drawn 4 and lost 10, with 48 goals scored and 41 conceded. Their last five have swung hard: a 2-1 win at Chicago Fire and a 4-2 home win over Orlando City in September were followed by two straight defeats, a 3-0 loss at RSL and a 3-0 home loss to Seattle. They answered on Wednesday with a 3-2 win at Cincinnati.
At the back they concede 1.41 goals a game, the 8th fewest in the league, and 72% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 6th highest rate. They commit just 9.55 fouls a game, the 3rd fewest.
Chicago Fire have won 14, drawn 6 and lost 9, scoring 52 and conceding 43. Their goals-for average of 1.79 is the 9th most in MLS, and 76% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest rate. Both teams have scored in 72% of their matches, the 6th highest.
Their recent results are mixed. A 1-0 win at Charlotte, a 3-1 win over Vancouver and a 2-1 win over NYCFC were followed on Thursday by a 3-1 home defeat to Philadelphia. They also lost 3-0 at Nashville SC earlier in the run. They pick up the 5th most cards in the league at 2.41 a game.
New England possible starting lineup:
Turner; Polster, Kohler, Wynder, Sands; Yueill, Raines, Miller; Langoni, Gil, Turgeman
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Brady; Dean, Elliott, Mbokazi, Barroso; Oregel, Salétros, Zinckernagel; Bamba, Haile-Selassie, Lewandowski
Carles Gil has had at least one shot in 17 straight games, averaging 2.4 a game, and the 1.04 at midnite reflects how reliable that run has been. The New England playmaker is the longest streak on either side.
Peyton Miller is a left-back who behaves like a forward: a shot in 16 straight games at 3.1 a game. He is 1.44 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Robert Lewandowski has a shot in eight consecutive games for Chicago, averaging 2 a game. He is 1.03 at midnite for a shot.
Philip Zinckernagel has had two or more shots in six straight games and averages 4.2 over that run. He is 1.25 at bet365 for two or more, a mark he has reached in each of his last five.
Maren Haile-Selassie has put a shot on target in four straight games and is 1.61 at Ladbrokes to make it five.
Our model backs New England at home, with a 42% chance of a home win against 33% for Chicago Fire. New England are 2.32 at bet365. The draw is 3.80 and Chicago Fire are 2.65.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| New England to win | 2.32 (bet365) | 42% |
| Draw | 3.80 (bet365) | 25% |
| Chicago Fire to win | 2.65 (bet365) | 33% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 63% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 (bet365) | 84% |
We expect New England to score 1.73 goals and Chicago Fire 1.50, which points to an open game. 1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make New England more likely to win, and a draw is in play. 2-1 to the hosts and 1-2 are the next most likely scorelines.
Both teams to score is 65% on our numbers, and the streaks point to plenty of shots from both sides. Gil, Miller, Lewandowski and Zinckernagel are the names with the runs behind them.
Statz prediction: New England 1-1 Chicago Fire.