Orlando City and DC United meet at Exploria Stadium in Major League Soccer, with kick-off at 00:30 UK on Sunday 18 October (7:30pm local on Saturday). The hosts are 7th in the Eastern Conference on 38 points and have a goal-hungry side that scores freely and leaks even more at the back, while DC United are 12th on 33 points and arrive with the lowest-scoring attack of the pair.
Orlando's games do not tend to stay quiet. Their latest result was a 3-3 draw away at Toronto, and the model expects goals again here.
Orlando City are 7th in the Eastern Conference with 11 wins, 5 draws and 13 defeats from 29 games, and a goal record of 54 for and 69 against. They score at 1.86 goals a game, the 6th most in the league, but concede 2.38, the 3rd most. That is why 76% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest rate in MLS.
Their last five reflect it. They drew 3-3 at Toronto on Wednesday in a game that finished level after six goals, and four days earlier they edged Columbus 3-2 at home. Before that came back-to-back 4-2 defeats at Philadelphia and New England, and a 3-0 home win over Toronto on 12 September.
DC United sit 12th in the East with 7 wins, 12 draws and 9 defeats from 28, and 36 goals scored is the 5th fewest in the league. Draws are their trademark. They beat New York RB 2-1 on Wednesday, but lost 4-0 at Inter Miami the weekend before and drew 3-3 at Vancouver on 27 September.
The two defences are not the same. DC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their games, the 11th highest rate, against Orlando's 14%, the 9th lowest. They also commit plenty of fouls, 12.82 a game, the 6th most in MLS.
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Crépeau; Angulo, Brekalo, Teodoro, Nogueira de Oliveira; Otávio, Atuesta, Cartagena; Sarajian, Ojeda, Griezmann
DC United possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Nono, Rowles, Nealis, Hefti; Kurokawa, Dozzell, Servania; Hopkins, Baribo, Avilez
MartÃn Ojeda has had at least one shot on target in 13 straight games and is 1.17 at bet365 to make it 14. He has also had two or more shots in six in a row, averaging 3.5 a game over that run.
Antoine Griezmann has managed two or more shots in 13 consecutive games, averaging 2.9, and he is 1.08 at Midnite to keep it going. He has also had a shot on target in four of his last five.
Iván Angulo has had a shot on target in seven straight games, and is 1.83 at Ladbrokes to extend that.
For DC United, Tai Baribo has had at least one shot in 13 straight games, averaging 2.5 a game, and he has put a shot on target in four of his last five. Silvan Hefti has made a tackle in 13 consecutive games at 3.5 a game, so he is a name to remember if tackle markets are your thing.
We back Orlando City to win, and the best price is 1.65 at Ladbrokes. The model has them at 51% to win, with DC United at 27% and the draw at 22%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando City win | 1.65 (Ladbrokes) | 51% |
| Draw | 4.33 (Midnite) | 22% |
| DC United win | 4.50 (bet365) | 27% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 72% |
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single score, though we make Orlando City more likely to win the game than to draw it. Our projection has Orlando on 2.16 goals and DC United on 1.55, which fits a game where both sides score, and 2-1 is only a shade behind 1-1 on the scoreline list.
The player markets carry the most interest. Our four-leg builder pairs Griezmann and Baribo each to have a shot on target with Atuesta and Brekalo each to commit a foul, at a combined 2.40. Griezmann has hit the shot on target mark in four of his last five, and Atuesta has fouled in four of his last five.