New York RB host Toronto at Sports Illustrated Stadium in Major League Soccer, with kick-off at 00:30 UK on Sunday 18 October. The hosts sit 8th in the Eastern Conference on 36 points, with Toronto 11th on 33, so a home win would stretch the gap to six. The hook is how leaky both defences are: New York RB have conceded 54 goals in 29 games and Toronto 55, and Toronto's games have seen both teams score more often than any other side's in the league.
Both sides played in midweek. New York RB lost 2-1 at DC United on Wednesday, while Toronto came out of a 3-3 draw with Orlando City.
New York RB are 10 wins, 6 draws and 13 defeats, with 39 goals scored. Their last five has been all over the place: a 1-0 win at Columbus, a 1-0 win at NYCFC, then a 0-3 home defeat to St. Louis, a 4-1 home win over San Diego and Wednesday's 2-1 loss at DC United. At the back they concede 1.86 a game, the 9th most in the league, and they keep a clean sheet only 14% of the time. They do win plenty of corners, averaging 5.79 a game, the 5th most.
Toronto have 7 wins, 12 draws and 10 defeats, and have scored 44. They lost three in a row away from home in September, at Orlando City, St. Louis and Nashville SC, before winning 2-1 against CF Montréal and drawing 3-3 with Orlando City at home. Both teams have scored in 79% of their games, the highest rate in the league, and they have kept a clean sheet in only 10%, the 5th lowest.
New York RB possible starting lineup:
Horvath; Che, Nealis, Bazán, Padelford; Donkor, Sofo, Forsberg; Ruvalcaba, Hall, Nelich
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Gavran; Laryea, Kuscevic, Gomis, Pereira; Dorsch, Coello, Corbeanu; Sallói, Sargent, Morgan
Ronald Donkor has committed at least one foul in 14 straight games and is 1.18 at midnite to make it 15. The midfielder has also made a tackle in eight in a row.
Mohammed Sofo has fouled in nine straight and had a shot in five straight, and is 1.06 at midnite to keep the shooting run going. He is averaging 2.9 tackles a game and has made one in each of his last ten.
Julian Hall has put a shot on target in each of his last five games. He is 1.25 at bet365 to do it again.
Josh Sargent has had a shot in seven straight games and averages 3.6 a game. He is 1.04 at midnite for another.
BenjamÃn Kuscevic has fouled in eight straight games and is 1.40 at midnite to extend it.
We back New York RB, who are 2.00 at Ladbrokes, with Toronto at 3.25 at bet365 and the draw at 4.00 at bet365. The model makes the hosts 47% to win, the draw 24% and Toronto 29%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| New York RB win | 2.00 (Ladbrokes) | 47% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 24% |
| Toronto win | 3.25 (bet365) | 29% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 66% |
Our projection is 1.91 goals for New York RB and 1.49 for Toronto. 1-1 is the likeliest score at 10%, though we make New York RB more likely to win, and a draw is in play. With 2-1 to the hosts next on the list, we see goals at both ends, and Toronto's league-high rate of games with both teams scoring points the same way.
Our prediction: New York RB 1-1 Toronto.