New York City host Los Angeles FC at Citi Field in a Major League Soccer game that kicks off at 00:30 UK time on Sunday 18 October 2026. LAFC come in with the 3rd fewest goals against in MLS, while New York City have lost three of their last five.
NYCFC are 10th in the Eastern Conference on 33 points from 29 games, with 42 goals scored and 40 conceded. LAFC are 6th in the Western Conference on 45 points from 30, with 47 scored and only 32 let in. Our model has this very close, with a draw firmly in play.
New York City have lost three of their last five, and the run has been rough. They went down 2-0 at Inter Miami on Wednesday and 2-1 at Chicago Fire the weekend before. Before that came a 2-2 draw at Atlanta and a 1-0 home defeat to New York RB. The one bright spot is a 2-0 win at RSL on 13 September. Their defence is decent, with goals against the 7th fewest in the division, but they win the 12th fewest shots on target and get the fewest corners of any side in MLS.
LAFC are coming off a 3-1 home win over Austin on Thursday, which followed a 1-1 draw with Vancouver. Before that they lost 1-0 at Dallas and drew 2-2 at San Jose. Defence is their strength: they have kept a clean sheet in 43% of games, the 2nd highest rate in MLS, and only 47% of their matches see both teams score, the 3rd lowest. They also take the 2nd most corners in the league.
New York City possible starting lineup:
Freese; Gray, Thiago Martins, O'Toole, Sands; O'Neill, Perea; Fernández Mercau, Wolf, Ojeda; Alonso MartÃnez
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Lloris; Palencia, Segura, Porteous, Cheberko; Vásquez, Choinière; Shaffelburg, Sieb, Son; Bouanga
Denis Bouanga is the headline name. He has had a shot in ten straight games and a shot on target in eight in a row, averaging 2.3 on target per game. Those runs are 1.02 and 1.22 at bet365 and Ladbrokes respectively.
Heung-min Son has had two or more shots in eight consecutive games, averaging 4.6, and a shot on target in six straight. The shot on target market is 1.33 at bet365.
Yevgen Cheberko has made a tackle in 15 straight games, averaging 2.8.
For the hosts, Nicolás Fernández Mercau has had at least two shots in each of his last five games, with 17 in total across that run, and two or more shots is 1.20 at bet365. Hannes Wolf has committed a foul in four straight games, at 1.30 with Midnite.
Our model leans slightly towards the hosts, though it is close to a coin flip with three outcomes in play. Best prices are 2.70 on New York City, 3.50 on the draw and 2.45 on Los Angeles FC at bet365. The player markets are where the interest lies, with Son, Bouanga and Fernández Mercau on the runs described above.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| New York City win | 2.70 (bet365) | 37% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 29% |
| Los Angeles FC win | 2.45 (bet365) | 34% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (midnite) | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 (bet365) | 50% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, with a 14% chance, though we make New York City marginally more likely to win. We project 1.37 goals for the hosts and 1.30 for the visitors, and the shot projections are close too, at 13.15 total shots for New York City and 12.64 for Los Angeles FC. Both teams to score is a 55% chance in our numbers, a touch above LAFC's own rate of 47%, the 3rd lowest in MLS.