Atlanta United welcome Inter Miami to Atlanta Stadium in Major League Soccer, with kick-off at 00:30 UK on Sunday 18 October. The hosts sit 14th in the Eastern Conference and the visitors 2nd, and the gap in attacking output is enormous: Miami score more goals per game than anyone in the league, while only two sides score fewer than Atlanta.
Miami also lead the competition for shots on target per game, and Lionel Messi arrives on a run of shooting numbers that nobody else in the division can match.
Atlanta are 14th in the Eastern Conference with 30 points from 29 games, having won 8, drawn 6 and lost 15, with 36 goals scored and 48 conceded. They managed 1.24 goals a game, the 3rd fewest in the league, and their 4.1 shots on target per game is the 2nd fewest.
The last week has been kinder. They won 3-0 away to CF Montréal on Wednesday, a result that followed a 3-1 home defeat to Cincinnati four days earlier. Before that came a 2-2 draw with NYCFC, a 1-0 win at Portland and a goalless draw at DC United.
Inter Miami are 2nd in the East with 52 points from 29 games, with 14 wins, 10 draws and 5 defeats, and a goal tally of 70 for and 50 against. Their 2.41 goals per game is the most in the league, and their shots on target average of 6.21 leads the division too.
They have won their last two at home, 2-0 against NYCFC on Wednesday and 4-0 against DC United before that. Before those wins they lost 2-1 at Columbus and drew 2-2 with San Diego and 2-2 with Nashville SC.
Both sides tend to leak goals. Miami have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their games and Atlanta in 14%, and Miami's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 76% of the time, the 2nd highest rate in the league.
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Hoyos; Jacob, Alonso, DÃaz, Báez; Amaro, Muyumba, Galoppo; Almirón, Miranchuk, Embolo
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Luján, Micael, Reguilón; Casemiro, De Paul, Ayala; Galarza Fonda; Messi, Suárez, Berterame
Lionel Messi has had at least one shot on target in 12 straight games and at least three shots in each of his last eight, averaging 7.5 shots a game across that run. His shots-on-target price is 1.11 at coral.
Germán Berterame has had a shot in 13 consecutive games, the longest run on either side, and is 1.05 at midnite for another.
Breel Embolo has had at least one shot in seven straight games. He is 1.05 at midnite for a shot and 1.25 at bet365 for a shot on target, and has hit the target in four of his last five.
MatÃas Galarza Fonda has committed two or more fouls in five games running, and is 1.50 at midnite to make it six.
Mauricio Amaro has made a tackle in seven straight games for Atlanta and is 2.00 for one or more shots.
We back Inter Miami to win, and they are 1.95 at midnite. The player markets are where the shape of the game shows: Messi and Berterame both have long shooting runs, and Embolo has a seven-game run of his own.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United win | 3.40 (bet365) | 34% |
| Draw | 4.10 (bet365) | 23% |
| Inter Miami win | 1.95 (midnite) | 43% |
| Both teams to score | 1.33 (bet365) | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 (bet365) | 70% |
The model projects 1.69 goals for Atlanta and 1.92 for Miami. 1-1 is the likeliest single score, so a draw is in play, though we make Inter Miami the likelier winner. Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, with goals at both ends: our model gives both teams to score a 70% chance.