Minnesota United host St. Louis City at Allianz Field on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 9:30pm UK. It is a meeting between a side 13th in the Western Conference and the team 2nd, and it comes just five weeks after St. Louis won 4-2 in the reverse fixture.
St. Louis arrive with 51 points from 29 games, Minnesota with 31. The gap in the table is wide, but our model barely separates the two sides on goals, and a draw is in play.
Minnesota United have not won in their last five. They have lost three of them and drawn the other two, the latest a 2-2 draw at Colorado in midweek, four days after a 2-2 draw with Houston. Before those came a 3-1 defeat at Seattle and a 3-2 home loss to LA Galaxy. They have scored 44 and conceded 53 across 29 games, and both teams have scored in 72% of their matches, the 6th highest rate in the league.
St. Louis City have lost none of their last five. They have won four, including a 6-2 win over LA Galaxy on 11 October and a 3-0 win at New York RB. In midweek they played out a 0-0 draw with Vancouver. They beat Minnesota 4-2 on 13 September, and St. Louis average 1.86 goals a game, the 6th most in the league. They also concede only 1.31, the 6th fewest.
St. Louis give away plenty of fouls, averaging 13.97 a game, the 4th most. Minnesota's foul count is also on the high side at 12.38, the 10th most.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Callender; Valerius, Boxall, Duggan, Jackson, Gene; Trapp, Markanich Jr.; Chancalay, Yeboah, Randell
St. Louis City possible starting lineup:
Bürki; MacNaughton, Baumgartl, Polvara; Wallem, Durkin, Edelman, Totland; Holse, Navarro, Mățan
Rafael Navarro has had a shot in 18 straight games for St. Louis, averaging 2.8 a game, and he is 1.03 at bet365 to make it 19. He has also put a shot on target in each of his last six and is 1.36 at bet365 to do it again.
Kelvin Yeboah has had two or more shots in nine straight games and averages 3.2, and he is 1.13 at bet365 for two or more again.
Carlo Holse has had at least one shot on target in five straight games and three or more shots in each of his last four, averaging four. He is 1.53 at bet365 for a shot on target and 1.91 for three or more shots.
Owen Gene has committed a foul in 15 straight games, the longest such run in the competition, at 1.7 a game. Morris Duggan has made a tackle in 12 in a row, averaging 2.8.
On the result, we have this one as a coin-flip: 38% for each side, with the draw at 24%. We project 1.73 goals for each team, and both teams to score comes in at 69%. The over 2.5 goals line is 67% likely. For anyone building a bet on shots, Navarro and Holse have each hit a shot on target in five of their last five, and Wil Trapp has had a shot in four of his last five, at 1.40 for one or more.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United win | 2.55 (bet365) | 38% |
| Draw | 4.00 (boylesports) | 24% |
| St. Louis City win | 2.45 (bet365) | 38% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 69% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 (bet365) | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 (bet365) | 67% |
Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 10%, with 1-2 and 2-1 next at 8% each. The model rates the two sides level, so a draw is in play, and with goals at both ends we expect both teams to score.
Prediction: Minnesota United 1-1 St. Louis City