San Diego host Houston Dynamo at Snapdragon Stadium on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 3:30am UK time. San Diego have just shipped five against Philadelphia and four at New York RB, and now face one of the stingiest defences in Major League Soccer.
The hosts sit 12th in the Western Conference on 32 points, while Houston Dynamo are 5th on 45. San Diego's games tend to be open, with 68% going over 2.5 goals, while only 39% of Houston's have.
San Diego have lost three of their last five and drawn the other two, and are winless in six. They went down 4-1 at New York RB, drew 3-3 at Austin and 2-2 at Inter Miami, and before that lost 5-0 at home to Philadelphia and 3-2 to San Jose. They have conceded 51 goals in 28 games, though they have kept a clean sheet in 25% of matches.
Houston Dynamo have drawn two of their last three, 2-2 with Cincinnati and 2-2 at Minnesota on Sunday, with a 2-0 home defeat to Sporting KC in between. Their last win was 2-1 over RSL. They have kept a clean sheet in 39% of games and only 39% of their matches see both teams score.
Attack is Houston's weaker side, at 1.29 goals and 4.5 shots on target a game, while San Diego average 1.71 goals a game.
San Diego possible starting lineup:
dos Santos; Verhoeven, Murphy, Sargeant, Duah; Godoy, Tverskov, Mimbang Nyangono; Dreyer, Ingvartsen, Achouri
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Gillingham; Andrade, Halter, Antônio Carlos, Negri; Artur, Samassékou, Bouzat; Ennali, Bogusz, Guilherme
Guilherme has had at least one shot in 17 straight games, averaging 3.1 a game over 27 appearances. Mateusz Bogusz has had two or more shots in eight in a row and averages 3.9 a game. He is 1.17 at bet365 to keep that going, and he has had a shot on target in four of his last five.
Elias Achouri has had a shot in eight straight for San Diego at 2.1 a game. Anders Dreyer has had two or more shots in three straight at 3.3 a game, and he is 1.35 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target after hitting the target in each of his last three.
Marcus Ingvartsen has had two or more shots in four of his last five, with 15 shots in that run, and he is 1.20 at bet365 for two or more shots.
We back San Diego narrowly, at 2.10 with bet365 to win. Houston Dynamo are 3.10 and the draw is 3.75.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego win | 2.10 (bet365) | 43% |
| Draw | 3.75 (bet365) | 28% |
| Houston Dynamo win | 3.10 (bet365) | 29% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 52% |
We predict 1-1, the likeliest scoreline at 13%, though we make San Diego more likely to win than Houston Dynamo, and a draw is clearly in play. Our model has San Diego scoring 1.53 goals and Houston Dynamo 1.21. Both teams to score is 56% with us, and over 2.5 goals is a coin flip at 52%.