LA Galaxy host Portland Timbers at Dignity Health Sports Park on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 03:30 UK time. It is a game between two sides who score and concede in equal measure: both teams have scored in 79% of Portland's matches and 76% of Galaxy's.
The table keeps them close. LA Galaxy are 9th, Portland 10th, and the three points between them can be reversed in one night.
LA Galaxy sit 9th in the Western Conference on 36 points from 29 games, with nine wins, nine draws and 11 defeats. Their last outing was a painful one: a 6-2 loss at St. Louis on Sunday. Before that they had won two in a row, beating Colorado 3-2 and winning 3-2 at Minnesota, and they drew 1-1 with Seattle before that.
Goals are not where Galaxy shine, at 1.34 a game, but they test keepers with 5.28 shots on target a game. At the back they concede 1.72 a game and have kept a clean sheet in only 14% of matches.
Portland Timbers are 10th on 33 points from 28 games, with nine wins, six draws and 13 defeats. They come in off a 3-3 draw at Sporting KC, and their last five also include a 3-1 defeat at San Jose and a 1-0 home loss to Atlanta. Three of their last five were defeats.
Portland score 1.82 a game but concede 1.93, and have kept a clean sheet in just 4% of games. Three-quarters of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
LA Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Miller, Glesnes, Haak, Aude; Ruiz, Reus, Thommy; Taylor, Klauss, Elgersma
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Pantemis; Hernández, Waterman, Miller, Fory; Chará, Ortiz; Lassiter, Da Costa, Velde; Janssen
Kristoffer Velde is the standout name. The Portland winger has had at least one shot in 27 straight games, averaging 3.1 a game. He is 1.05 at bet365 to make it 28.
Ariel Lassiter is in form on the other flank. He has had two or more shots in five straight games, averaging 2.4, and is 1.33 at bet365 to do it again.
Vincent Janssen has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 1.8, and is 1.03 at bet365.
For the hosts, Justin Haak is a tackler first. The centre-back has made a tackle in 12 straight games, averaging 2.3, and has had a shot in four of his last five. His shot price is 1.44 at bet365.
H. Miller has had a shot in six straight games and is 1.06 at bet365.
We back LA Galaxy at 1.96 with bet365, and the model makes them the most likely winners. On the player markets, Velde and Lassiter both come in with long shot runs, while the Lassiter and Haak shots double combines at 1.92.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| LA Galaxy to win | 1.96 (bet365) | 43% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 24% |
| Portland Timbers to win | 3.30 (bet365) | 33% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 (bet365) | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 70% |
We project 1.92 goals for LA Galaxy and 1.68 for Portland. Our prediction is a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single score, though we make LA Galaxy slightly more likely to win the game. Both sides scoring is the strongest read here, and Portland's record at the back backs it up.