Los Angeles FC welcome Austin to BMO Stadium on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 3:30am UK (7:30pm local on Wednesday evening). LAFC have one of the tightest defences in the league and Austin are coming off a 4-1 home defeat, and the gap shows in the Western Conference table, where LAFC are 6th on 42 points and Austin 13th on 31.
LAFC concede 1.07 goals a game and have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their matches. Austin have scored just 36 in 28 games and conceded 51.
Los Angeles FC are winless in their last four. They drew 1-1 at home to Vancouver on 11 October, lost 1-0 at Dallas, shared a 2-2 draw with San Jose and went down 3-1 at Sporting KC. Before that run came a 2-0 home win over New York RB. They are 11-9-9 over 29 games with 44 goals scored and 31 conceded.
Austin are 7-10-11 from 28 games with 36 scored and 51 against. Their latest outing was a 4-1 home defeat to Nashville SC, which followed a wild 3-3 draw with San Diego. Before that they drew 0-0 at Dallas, won 2-1 at Vancouver and drew 1-1 with Colorado.
Austin's matches are open: 68% of them have gone over 2.5 goals and 68% have seen both sides score. Yet they score only 1.29 a game, so they concede freely without creating much themselves.
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Lloris; Palencia, Porteous, Segura, Cheberko; Vásquez, Walta; Bouanga, Shaffelburg, Son; Sieb
Austin possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Desler, Hines-Ike, Biro; Sánchez, Torres, Gallagher; Facundo Torres, Uzuni, Vazquez; Ramirez
We back Los Angeles FC to win, and they are 1.41 at bet365. The model makes them 67% likely to take the points, with the draw at 20% and an Austin win at 13%. Beyond the result, the player markets hold the interest, notably Son and Bouanga's shooting runs.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| LAFC to win | 1.41 (bet365) | 67% |
| Draw | 4.50 (bet365) | 20% |
| Austin to win | 6.00 (Ladbrokes) | 13% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 (bet365) | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 (bet365) | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 61% |
We predict a 2-0 win for Los Angeles FC. The model projects 2.25 goals for the hosts against 0.91 for Austin, and LAFC keep a clean sheet in 40% of its simulations. 2-1 and 1-1 are both within a point of the headline scoreline, so a draw is in play, but we make LAFC clear favourites.