Colorado Rapids host Minnesota United at Dick's Sporting Goods Park in Major League Soccer, with kick-off at 02:30 UK on Thursday 15 October. The visitors arrive on a bad run, and the shots markets are where the interest lies, with Kelvin Yeboah and Paxten Aaronson both carrying long runs.
Colorado sit 8th in the Western Conference on 37 points from 28 games. Minnesota are 14th on 30, and our model makes the home side the likelier winner.
Colorado have lost only one of their last five, but they have not been winning either. They drew 1-1 with San Jose at home on Sunday, lost 3-2 at LA Galaxy before that, and shared a 3-3 draw with Seattle. The one win in that stretch was a 1-0 over CF Montréal.
The strength at the back is real. Colorado have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their games and concede 1.39 a game. They have scored 39 and conceded 39 in 28 games. They are also one of the most fouling sides in MLS at 14.64 a game, with 2.68 cards a game, so the fouls and cards markets are worth a look.
Minnesota's recent form is poor: one win in their last ten, and four defeats in the last five before Sunday's 2-2 draw with Houston. Before that they lost 3-1 at Seattle, 3-2 at home to LA Galaxy and 4-2 at St. Louis. They have conceded 51 goals this season, 1.82 a game.
Both teams have scored in 71% of Minnesota's games, while Colorado's matches have produced both-teams-to-score only 46% of the time.
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Hansen; Cannon, Holding, Williams, Navarro; Atencio, Frederick, Aaronson; Whittaker, Abu Farkhi, Phillip
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Callender; Valerius, Boxall, Duggan, Duncan; Trapp, Gene, Markanich Jr.; Chancalay, Caldeira, Yeboah
Kelvin Yeboah has had two or more shots in eight straight games and averages 3.1 a game. He has hit that mark in each of his last five, and two or more shots is 1.20 at bet365.
Paxten Aaronson has had a shot in 11 straight games for Colorado and averages 2.5. He has also put a shot on target in four of his last five, and one on target is 1.53 at bet365.
Marcus Caldeira has had two or more shots in six straight games for Minnesota, averaging 2.3 over that run, and is 1.30 for two or more at bet365.
Morgan Whittaker has had two or more shots in each of his last four games and averages 3.8, with two or more at 1.14.
Owen Gene has committed a foul in 14 straight games, the longest run in the league, at 1.7 a game.
We back Colorado at 2.10 with bet365, and the model gives them a 51% chance of winning. A draw is in play too, at 3.60.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado win | 2.10 (bet365) | 51% |
| Draw | 3.60 (bet365) | 25% |
| Minnesota win | 3.25 (bet365) | 24% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 60% |
We project 1.87 goals for Colorado and 1.24 for Minnesota. 1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Colorado clearly more likely to win, and 2-1 and 2-0 follow it among the likelier outcomes. Our prediction is Colorado Rapids 1-1 Minnesota United.
Colorado have a 29% chance of a clean sheet by our numbers against 15% for Minnesota, and the model has the home side taking 15.7 shots to 10.5. Of the player markets, Aaronson and Yeboah carry the longest runs on the shots side.