One point separates the top two in the Western Conference when St. Louis City host Vancouver Whitecaps at Energizer Park, with kick-off at 1:30am UK on Thursday 15 October. Vancouver lead on 51 points and St. Louis sit 2nd on 50, each with 28 games played.
Vancouver have one of the league's best attacks and sturdiest defences, while St. Louis arrive unbeaten in nine of their last ten, with a 6-2 win on Sunday the latest result.
St. Louis have been hard to stop. A 2-2 draw at Portland was followed by a 4-2 win over Minnesota, a 3-1 win over Toronto, a 3-0 win at New York RB and then the 6-2 demolition of LA Galaxy. That is 16 goals in those four wins.
The goals-for number backs it up: 1.93 a game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games, and clean sheets are rare, at 14%.
Vancouver's form is patchier. Of their last ten, they have won four, drawn two and lost four, and the latest results read a 1-1 draw at LAFC, a 3-1 defeat at Chicago Fire, a 3-3 draw with DC United, a 3-0 win at RSL and a 1-2 home loss to Austin. They still lead the Western Conference, on 61 goals scored and just 30 conceded.
The numbers behind that are strong. Vancouver average 6.18 shots on target a game and keep a clean sheet in 39% of games, and only half of their games see both teams score.
St. Louis City possible starting lineup:
Bürki; MacNaughton, Baumgartl, Edelman; Wallem, Polvara, Durkin, Totland; Holse, Mățan; Navarro
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Takaoka; Ocampo, Laborda, Johnson, Priso; Larraz, Cubas; Sabbi, Gauld, Diaby; White
Rafael Navarro has had a shot on target in five straight games, averaging 1.8 a game, and he is 1.30 at bet365 to make it six. He has also had two or more shots in each of those five games and is 1.17 for that.
Carlo Holse has found the target in four in a row, averaging two shots on target a game across that run, and is 1.50 at bet365 to extend it.
For Vancouver, Andrés Cubas has made at least one tackle in 22 straight games, at 4.8 a game.
On the St. Louis side, Conrad Wallem has committed a foul in nine in a row, averaging 2.8.
Our model also rates Édier Ocampo likelier to take a shot than the 1.53 at bet365 suggests, and he has had one in four of his last five.
Our model backs St. Louis at 2.25 with Ladbrokes, making them the likelier winners of a tight game at home. Vancouver are 2.82 and the draw 3.80, both at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City win | 2.25 (Ladbrokes) | 40% |
| Draw | 3.80 (bet365) | 26% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps win | 2.82 (bet365) | 34% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 61% |
We expect goals, with 1.65 for St. Louis and 1.50 for Vancouver in our projections. 1-1 is the likeliest score, and a draw is in play, though we make St. Louis the more likely winners. Our prediction is St. Louis City 1-1 Vancouver Whitecaps.
Both teams to score is 1.44 at bet365 and our model puts it at 64%. Navarro's shot-on-target run and Holse's are the player angles with recent form behind them.