Toronto and CF Montréal meet at Toronto Stadium on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 6pm UK, with two struggling sides in the lower half of Major League Soccer. Toronto are 13th on 29 points and Montréal are 15th on 24, and both have more losses than wins. The home side have lost their last three, while the visitors arrive on the back of a 3-1 win over Cincinnati that ended a run of defeats.
Toronto have drawn 11 of their 27 games, winning six and losing ten, with 39 goals scored and 51 conceded. The recent run is the worry. They lost 2-0 at Nashville SC, 3-1 at St. Louis and 3-0 at Orlando City, scoring once across those three games. Before that came a 2-1 home win over Nashville SC and a wild 4-4 draw with Chicago Fire.
Their games are rarely quiet. Toronto have seen both teams score in 78% of their matches, the 2nd highest in the league, and they concede 1.89 a game, the 7th most. They keep a clean sheet in only 11% of games, the 6th lowest, and they average 4.33 shots on target, the 6th fewest.
CF Montréal have won six, drawn six and lost 15, scoring 34 and conceding 54. They give up 2.00 goals a game, the 4th most, and score just 1.26, the 5th fewest. Their 3-1 win over Cincinnati last time out came after a 2-0 home loss to Columbus, a 1-0 defeat at Colorado, a 1-2 home loss to Charlotte and a 2-0 loss at Philadelphia.
Montréal commit more fouls than most, 12.41 a game, the 8th most, and they average 4.85 shots on target, the 14th most.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Gavran; Gilman, Monlouis, Gomis, Pereira; Osorio, Dorsch, Sallói; Corbeanu, Sargent, Morgan
CF Montréal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Neal, Ceballos, Craig, Petrasso; Longstaff, Loturi, Sánchez; Ríos, Owusu, Bugaj
Prince Owusu is the standout for Montréal. He has had a shot on target in nine straight games and is 1.30 at Ladbrokes for another. He has also had three or more shots in four in a row, and that is 1.33 at bet365. Our model likes the shots-on-target angle too.
On the Toronto side, Josh Sargent has had a shot in five straight games and averages 3.8 a game. Jonathan Osorio has also had a shot in each of his last five and is 1.14 at bet365.
Niklas Dorsch has committed a foul in seven straight games, two a game on average, while Montréal centre-back Brayan Ceballos has fouled in six in a row. Montréal's Dawid Bugaj is a name for shots, with the 2+ shots line at 8.00.
We back Toronto, who are 1.91 to win at bet365, and our model gives them a 48% chance. Over 2.5 goals is 1.53 and both teams to score is 1.50, both at bet365, and the model makes both likelier than not.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto to win | 1.91 (bet365) | 48% |
| Draw | 3.90 (bet365) | 26% |
| CF Montréal to win | 3.60 (bet365) | 27% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 57% |
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest score, though we make Toronto the more likely winner. The model has Toronto on 1.72 goals and Montréal on 1.24, and 2-1 to the hosts is the next most likely result. Toronto's goals against of 1.89 a game and Montréal's 2.00 point to a match where both sides find the net.