Chicago Fire host New York City at Soldier Field on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 19:30 UK. Both sides have been drawing a lot of games lately, but the home side have the stronger attack and the better table position. Chicago Fire sit 4th in Major League Soccer on 45 points, while New York City are 9th on 33, and our model makes the hosts clear favourites.
Chicago Fire have scored 49 and conceded 39 in 27 games, and they arrive off a 3-1 win over Vancouver on Wednesday. NYCFC have not won since beating RSL 2-0 on 13 September.
Chicago Fire have won 13 of 27 and lost 8. Their last five read a draw, two defeats and then two wins: a 1-1 draw with Inter Miami, a 2-1 loss to New England, a 3-0 defeat at Nashville SC, then a 1-0 win at Charlotte and the 3-1 home win over Vancouver on Wednesday.
The attack is the selling point. Chicago Fire average 1.81 goals a game, the 7th most in the league, and they create shots on target at 5.3 a game, the 4th most. Both teams have scored in 70% of their matches, the 6th highest figure, and 74% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 3rd highest. They also keep clean sheets in 26% of games, the 6th highest rate.
New York City have won 8, drawn 9 and lost 10, and the draws are the story of their recent run. They drew 0-0 with Nashville SC, lost 2-1 to New England, won 2-0 at RSL, lost 1-0 to New York RB and drew 2-2 at Atlanta last time out.
The strength is at the back. NYCFC concede 1.33 goals a game, the 6th fewest, and they are the 4th fewest for cards. The weakness is going forward: they take the 11th fewest shots on target, and their corner count of 3.81 a game is the lowest in the division. Only 52% of their games go over 2.5 goals, the 5th lowest rate.
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Cohen; Dean, Elliott, Mbokazi, Barroso; D'Avilla, Gomez, Bamba; Zinckernagel, Haile-Selassie, Lewandowski
New York City possible starting lineup:
Freese; Sands, Gustavo, Martins, Cavallo; Perea, Molinari, Ojeda; Wolf, Traoré, Fernández Mercau
Maren Haile-Selassie (profile) has had a shot in eight straight games and averages three a game. That run is 1.05 at bet365.
Philip Zinckernagel (profile) has put a shot on target in four in a row and is 1.40 at bet365 to do it again. He has had one in four of his last five.
Robert Lewandowski (profile) has had a shot in six straight games, averaging 2.3 across 12 appearances. The striker is the obvious focal point for the home attack.
Nicolás Fernández Mercau (profile) is NYCFC's most reliable shooter. He has had two or more shots in five straight games and averages 2.6, with 3, 2, 3, 3 and 2 across those five. Two or more is 1.25 at bet365.
Jack Elliott (profile) is a centre-back who has had a shot in five straight games. He is 1.40 at bet365 for a sixth.
We back Chicago Fire at 1.76 with bet365. Our model gives the hosts a 54% chance of winning, with the draw at 25% and NYCFC at 22%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire to win | 1.76 | 54% |
| Draw | 3.90 | 25% |
| NYCFC to win | 4.20 | 22% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 58% |
We expect 1.88 goals from Chicago Fire and 1.14 from NYCFC. The likeliest single score is 1-1, so a draw is in play, though we make Chicago Fire the more likely winner and 2-1 is the next best scoreline. Both teams are expected to score and Chicago Fire's own record of 70% for both teams to score points the same way.
The interest is in the player markets. Zinckernagel on target at 1.40, Elliott for a shot at 1.40 and Fernández Mercau for two or more shots at 1.25 combine to 2.45 as a three-leg bet builder at bet365. Elliott has had a shot in all of his last five games. Zinckernagel has had one on target in four of his last five.
Our prediction: Chicago Fire 1-1 New York City.