Chicago Fire host the Vancouver Whitecaps at 01:30 UK on Wednesday 7 October at Soldier Field, with the visitors carrying much the better numbers.
Vancouver are first of 30 MLS clubs for shots on target at 6.46 a game, second for scoring and second for goals conceded. The model still has under 2.5 goals six points above what the price implies.
Chicago won 1-0 at Charlotte last time out, which ended a run of a 3-0 defeat at Nashville and a 1-2 at home to New England. Before that a 1-1 with Inter Miami and a 4-4 at Toronto. They are eleventh of 30 for scoring and fifth for shots on target, and 73 per cent of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, which is fifth in the league.
Vancouver drew 3-3 with DC United and won 3-0 at Real Salt Lake before it. The season numbers are strong across the board: second for goals scored at 2.27 a game, second for goals conceded at one, third for clean sheet rate and third for corners. They are also third of 30 for fouls at 14.31 a game. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.64 goals for Vancouver and 1.43 for Chicago, a combined 3.07, and prices the result almost exactly: Vancouver 41.8 per cent against a margin-free implied 42.6, Chicago 32.2 against 34.
The totals are where it disagrees. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.44, an implied 65.2 per cent, and the model has it at 59.2. Under 2.5 at 2.70 therefore carries six points, and both teams to score, No, at 2.75 carries nearly four.
The two clubs' records pull in opposite directions on that. Chicago's matches have gone over 2.5 in 73 per cent of cases, fifth in MLS, while Vancouver's have seen goals at both ends in only 46 per cent, twenty-sixth of 30. A side that concedes one a game and keeps clean sheets in 42 per cent of its matches is the more reliable half of that pair.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Sergii Boiko, who has no completed matches in our database this season, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
The streaks make up for it, and one of them is the longest in our data. Andrés Cubas has made two or more tackles in 21 straight games, and has also committed a foul in seven straight. Sebastian Berhalter has fouled in nine straight and had two or more shots in eight. For the hosts, Hugo Cuypers has committed a foul in nine straight.
In the priced markets, Brian White has hit the target in four of his last five at 1.22, and Philip Zinckernagel in four of five at 1.44. Anton Salétros has had a shot in four of five at 1.44.
A Vancouver side third of 30 for fouls, with its two most-used midfielders on seven and nine-game foul runs, is where this fixture is most legible.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Vancouver have the better side on almost every season number and the result market has them priced for it without generosity. The model's one real disagreement is the total.
The read is a Vancouver win or a draw in a tighter game than Chicago's own over-2.5 record advertises, with the tackle and foul counts in the visiting midfield the better-defined markets.
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