Tondela xG 2025/2026

Tondela expected goals 2025/2026: 2025/2026

Games: 34
Expected goals (xG): 43.15
Goals scored: 27
Goals minus xG: -16.15
Expected goals against (xGA): 53.18
Goals conceded: 55
xGA minus goals conceded: -1.82
Expected points (xPts): 41.62
Points: 28
Points minus xPts: -13.62
Verdict: Due an upturn

Are Tondela overperforming their expected goals?

Tondela have taken 13.6 points fewer than their chances warranted over 34 games: -16.2 goals against their xG, and -1.8 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

Tondela results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
25/26	34	43.15	27	-16.15	53.18	55	-1.82	41.62	28	-13.62
Last 10	10	11.20	8	-3.20	17.11	17	+0.11	11.33	9	-2.33
Last 5	5	7.58	6	-1.58	7.06	7	+0.06	7.58	7	-0.58
Home	17	23.04	13	-10.04	26.03	21	+5.03	22.11	13	-9.11
Away	17	20.11	14	-6.11	27.15	34	-6.85	19.51	15	-4.51

Tondela expected goals match by match, 2025/2026

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
16 May	Liga Portugal	Arouca (A)	3-1	0.85	2.06	0.64	0	L
11 May	Liga Portugal	Moreirense (H)	2-0	1.91	0.32	2.47	3	W
3 May	Liga Portugal	Casa Pia (A)	0-1	1.49	0.48	2.13	3	W
29 Apr	Liga Portugal	Sporting (A)	2-2	1.40	2.64	0.73	1	L
25 Apr	Liga Portugal	Nacional (H)	0-2	1.93	1.56	1.61	0	W
19 Apr	Liga Portugal	Porto (A)	2-0	0.11	3.40	0.05	0	L
13 Apr	Liga Portugal	Gil Vicente (H)	2-2	1.87	1.91	1.37	1	L
3 Apr	Liga Portugal	Vitória SC (A)	5-0	0.05	2.57	0.09	0	L
21 Mar	Liga Portugal	AVS (H)	0-0	0.97	0.89	1.40	1	W
9 Mar	Liga Portugal	Rio Ave (H)	0-1	0.62	1.28	0.84	0	L
1 Mar	Liga Portugal	Santa Clara (H)	2-2	1.14	1.86	0.92	1	L
20 Feb	Liga Portugal	Estrela (A)	0-2	1.42	0.91	1.73	3	W
13 Feb	Liga Portugal	Alverca (H)	1-1	1.67	0.85	1.95	1	W
7 Feb	Liga Portugal	Estoril (A)	2-2	1.14	1.23	1.29	1	L
1 Feb	Liga Portugal	Benfica (H)	0-0	0.58	2.87	0.26	1	L
25 Jan	Liga Portugal	Famalicão (A)	3-0	0.08	0.84	0.53	0	L
18 Jan	Liga Portugal	Braga (H)	0-1	1.63	1.64	1.38	0	L
11 Jan	Liga Portugal	Moreirense (A)	1-0	0.51	0.55	1.24	0	D
3 Jan	Liga Portugal	Arouca (H)	3-1	0.59	0.65	1.24	3	D
21 Dec	Liga Portugal	Casa Pia (H)	1-2	1.64	1.62	1.39	0	W
15 Dec	Liga Portugal	Nacional (A)	3-1	4.04	2.35	2.10	0	W
7 Dec	Liga Portugal	Porto (H)	0-2	0.58	1.90	0.52	0	L
29 Nov	Liga Portugal	Gil Vicente (A)	0-1	0.92	0.63	1.58	3	W
8 Nov	Liga Portugal	Vitória SC (H)	0-1	1.75	1.51	1.53	0	W
2 Nov	Liga Portugal	AVS (A)	2-2	1.84	0.93	1.99	1	W
26 Oct	Liga Portugal	Sporting (H)	0-3	0.63	3.07	0.24	0	L
5 Oct	Liga Portugal	Rio Ave (A)	3-0	1.02	1.30	1.16	0	L
27 Sep	Liga Portugal	Santa Clara (A)	1-2	1.85	2.07	1.27	3	L
21 Sep	Liga Portugal	Estrela (H)	0-0	1.86	1.10	1.88	1	W
12 Sep	Liga Portugal	Alverca (A)	1-0	2.36	1.16	2.10	0	W

Tondela players: goals against expected goals, 2025/2026

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Rony Lopes	attacker	16	1043	2.01	4	+1.99	0.17
Nor Maviram	defender	20	1458	0.41	2	+1.59	0.03
Yefrei Rodríguez	attacker	13	387	0.28	1	+0.72	0.07
Cícero	midfielder	18	1203	0.29	1	+0.71	0.02
Rodrigo Conceição	defender	20	1431	0.32	1	+0.68	0.02
Bebeto	defender	24	1901	2.45	3	+0.55	0.12
João Silva	defender	12	996	0.64	1	+0.36	0.06
Yaya Sithole	midfielder	26	1543	0.79	1	+0.21	0.05
Tiago Manso	defender	28	1535	1.16	1	-0.16	0.07
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka	attacker	10	525	0.58	0	-0.58	0.10
Arjen Van Der Heide	attacker	10	236	0.58	0	-0.58	0.22
Ivan Cavaleiro	attacker	13	852	2.64	2	-0.64	0.28
Yarlen	attacker	11	451	0.71	0	-0.71	0.14
Juanse	midfielder	29	1979	0.78	0	-0.78	0.04
Brayan Medina	defender	25	2199	0.87	0	-0.87	0.04
Miro	attacker	4	282	0.93	0	-0.93	0.30
Joe Hodge	midfielder	26	1425	2.03	1	-1.03	0.13
Makan Aïko	attacker	18	1059	2.66	1	-1.66	0.23
Maranhão	attacker	33	2470	8.46	6	-2.46	0.31
Hugo Félix	midfielder	26	1334	3.44	0	-3.44	0.23
Jordan	attacker	22	1240	4.73	1	-3.73	0.34

Liga Portugal 2025/2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Porto	34	63.3	66	24	18	70.3	88	+17.7
2	Sporting CP	34	71.1	89	28	24	71.7	82	+10.3
3	Moreirense	34	31	37	52.4	49	34.5	43	+8.5
4	Benfica	34	75.2	74	29.9	25	71.8	80	+8.2
5	Arouca	34	35.3	47	51.5	64	39	42	+3
6	Estoril	34	40.8	54	53.9	57	38.2	39	+0.8
7	Rio Ave	34	35.8	35	55.8	57	36	36	-0
8	Famalicão	34	48.2	42	34	29	56.3	56	-0.3
9	Sporting Braga	34	56.8	64	36.2	36	59.4	59	-0.4
10	Gil Vicente	34	48.5	47	39	38	52.2	50	-2.2
11	Casa Pia	34	32.1	31	53.1	57	34.1	30	-4.1
12	Alverca	34	39.5	35	45.6	52	43.7	39	-4.7
13	Vitória Guimarães	34	43.1	39	43.7	51	47	42	-5
14	Nacional	34	41.4	37	55.5	45	40.1	34	-6.1
15	Estrela Amadora	34	38.5	38	55.5	56	36.5	30	-6.5
16	AVS	34	30.9	27	62.8	67	27.8	21	-6.8
17	Santa Clara	34	36.1	32	36.3	41	46	36	-10
18	Tondela	34	43.1	27	53.2	55	41.6	28	-13.6