AVS xG 2025/2026

AVS expected goals 2025/2026: 2025/2026

Games: 34
Expected goals (xG): 30.86
Goals scored: 27
Goals minus xG: -3.86
Expected goals against (xGA): 62.86
Goals conceded: 67
xGA minus goals conceded: -4.14
Expected points (xPts): 27.80
Points: 21
Points minus xPts: -6.80
Verdict: A bit unlucky

Are AVS overperforming their expected goals?

AVS have taken 6.8 points fewer than their chances warranted over 34 games: -3.9 goals against their xG, and -4.1 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

AVS results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
25/26	34	30.86	27	-3.86	62.86	67	-4.14	27.80	21	-6.80
Last 10	10	9.54	9	-0.54	18.93	10	+8.93	8.20	12	+3.80
Last 5	5	6.79	8	+1.21	11.58	5	+6.58	4.59	9	+4.41
Home	17	15.41	15	-0.41	30.90	27	+3.90	14.10	12	-2.10
Away	17	15.45	12	-3.45	31.96	40	-8.04	13.70	9	-4.70

AVS expected goals match by match, 2025/2026

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
16 May	Liga Portugal	Moreirense (A)	0-0	1.57	1.36	1.52	1	W
10 May	Liga Portugal	Porto (H)	3-1	0.65	3.03	0.26	3	L
2 May	Liga Portugal	Nacional (A)	1-2	1.62	1.82	1.27	3	L
26 Apr	Liga Portugal	Sporting (H)	1-1	1.55	3.12	0.64	1	L
17 Apr	Liga Portugal	Rio Ave (A)	2-2	1.40	2.25	0.90	1	L
11 Apr	Liga Portugal	Vitória SC (H)	1-1	0.75	2.31	0.48	1	L
3 Apr	Liga Portugal	Gil Vicente (A)	3-0	0.45	2.20	0.34	0	L
21 Mar	Liga Portugal	Tondela (A)	0-0	0.89	0.97	1.27	1	L
15 Mar	Liga Portugal	Santa Clara (H)	0-1	0.23	1.02	0.61	0	L
7 Mar	Liga Portugal	Alverca (A)	0-0	0.43	0.85	0.91	1	L
28 Feb	Liga Portugal	Estrela (H)	0-0	0.81	0.82	1.32	1	D
21 Feb	Liga Portugal	Benfica (A)	3-0	0.11	3.36	0.06	0	L
15 Feb	Liga Portugal	Estoril (H)	3-0	1.31	0.82	1.73	3	W
9 Feb	Liga Portugal	Famalicão (A)	3-1	0.38	1.84	0.41	0	L
2 Feb	Liga Portugal	Braga (H)	0-4	0.73	1.93	0.61	0	L
23 Jan	Liga Portugal	Casa Pia (A)	3-3	3.42	1.31	2.41	1	W
17 Jan	Liga Portugal	Arouca (H)	0-1	0.62	1.37	0.79	0	L
3 Jan	Liga Portugal	Moreirense (H)	0-2	0.47	1.74	0.50	0	L
29 Dec	Liga Portugal	Porto (A)	2-0	0.28	2.37	0.22	0	L
21 Dec	Liga Portugal	Nacional (H)	2-2	1.10	1.43	1.13	1	L
13 Dec	Liga Portugal	Sporting (A)	6-0	0.65	2.53	0.37	0	L
6 Dec	Liga Portugal	Rio Ave (H)	1-2	0.97	2.54	0.53	0	L
28 Nov	Liga Portugal	Vitória SC (A)	4-0	1.04	1.43	1.08	0	L
9 Nov	Liga Portugal	Gil Vicente (H)	1-1	1.77	2.26	1.12	1	L
2 Nov	Liga Portugal	Tondela (H)	2-2	0.93	1.84	0.79	1	L
25 Oct	Liga Portugal	Santa Clara (A)	2-0	0.24	2.06	0.26	0	L
4 Oct	Liga Portugal	Alverca (H)	1-3	0.71	1.97	0.58	0	L
27 Sep	Liga Portugal	Estrela (A)	3-0	0.70	2.00	0.56	0	L
20 Sep	Liga Portugal	Benfica (H)	0-3	0.78	2.51	0.44	0	L
13 Sep	Liga Portugal	Estoril (A)	3-1	0.89	2.23	0.59	0	L

AVS players: goals against expected goals, 2025/2026

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Roni	midfielder	16	1317	0.43	2	+1.57	0.03
Diogo Spencer	defender	13	1007	0.27	1	+0.73	0.02
Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos	defender	17	1031	0.58	1	+0.42	0.05
Sidi Bane	defender	9	588	0.60	1	+0.40	0.09
Ángel Algobia Esteves	midfielder	21	1083	0.63	1	+0.37	0.05
Tomané	attacker	29	2025	3.64	4	+0.36	0.16
Pedro Lima Barros	midfielder	26	1896	3.80	4	+0.20	0.18
Ânderson Miguel da Silva	attacker	21	350	3.85	4	+0.15	0.99
Guilherme Neiva Silva	attacker	24	941	2.23	2	-0.23	0.21
Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete	attacker	27	1290	3.53	3	-0.53	0.25
Óscar Perea	attacker	25	1257	2.73	2	-0.73	0.20
Rafael Avelino Pereira Pinto Barbosa	midfielder	13	646	1.77	1	-0.77	0.25
Bruno Lourenço	attacker	7	232	0.88	0	-0.88	0.34
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola	attacker	34	2444	2.92	1	-1.92	0.11

Liga Portugal 2025/2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Porto	34	63.3	66	24	18	70.3	88	+17.7
2	Sporting CP	34	71.1	89	28	24	71.7	82	+10.3
3	Moreirense	34	31	37	52.4	49	34.5	43	+8.5
4	Benfica	34	75.2	74	29.9	25	71.8	80	+8.2
5	Arouca	34	35.3	47	51.5	64	39	42	+3
6	Estoril	34	40.8	54	53.9	57	38.2	39	+0.8
7	Rio Ave	34	35.8	35	55.8	57	36	36	-0
8	Famalicão	34	48.2	42	34	29	56.3	56	-0.3
9	Sporting Braga	34	56.8	64	36.2	36	59.4	59	-0.4
10	Gil Vicente	34	48.5	47	39	38	52.2	50	-2.2
11	Casa Pia	34	32.1	31	53.1	57	34.1	30	-4.1
12	Alverca	34	39.5	35	45.6	52	43.7	39	-4.7
13	Vitória Guimarães	34	43.1	39	43.7	51	47	42	-5
14	Nacional	34	41.4	37	55.5	45	40.1	34	-6.1
15	Estrela Amadora	34	38.5	38	55.5	56	36.5	30	-6.5
16	AVS	34	30.9	27	62.8	67	27.8	21	-6.8
17	Santa Clara	34	36.1	32	36.3	41	46	36	-10
18	Tondela	34	43.1	27	53.2	55	41.6	28	-13.6