Tottenham vs Everton Predictions and Betting Tips - Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur host Everton at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday 12 September, kick-off 5:30pm UK time. Spurs have played three Premier League matches this season and have not scored in any of them. Everton have scored in all three of theirs. The Statz model still makes the hosts favourites, which tells you how much of this fixture is being decided by what happens at the other end.
The model projects 1.46 goals for Tottenham Hotspur and 1.00 for Everton. Live numbers through to kick-off are on the Statz match centre.
How the teams arrive
Tottenham Hotspur read WLWLD across their last five, oldest to newest, and the league portion of that is grim: 0-3 at Brentford, 0-2 at home to Newcastle United, 0-0 at Nottingham Forest. The 5-1 Carabao Cup win over Charlton Athletic is the only time they have scored since August. They sit 18th of 20 for goals per game at 0.00.
The underlying numbers are kinder than the scoreline but not by much. Across those three league games Spurs have created 3.03 expected goals and conceded 5.53, which is 1.01 against 1.84 per match. Strip out the 3.87 they shipped at Brentford and the defensive picture improves sharply: 0.94 conceded against Newcastle United, 0.72 at Forest. They have kept one clean sheet in three, which still ranks them 3rd of 20 at 33%.
Everton arrive LWWDD over their last five with a healthier league return: 2-0 against Crystal Palace, 1-1 at AFC Bournemouth, 2-2 with Manchester United. That is 1.67 goals per game, rank 8 of 20, against 1.00 conceded, rank 6. Both teams have scored in 67% of their matches, rank 3 of 20. Their expected numbers sit at 1.23 created and 1.74 conceded per game, so the 2-2 with Manchester United, where Everton won the expected-goals count 1.07 to 0.84, was the most convincing of the three.
One split matters more than any of that. Everton commit 8.67 fouls per game, fewest in the division at rank 20 of 20. Tottenham Hotspur commit 14.00, rank 4 of 20. Spurs also lead the league for corners at 7.33 per game. Both line-ups here are the model's predicted XIs rather than confirmed team sheets, so check team news before kick-off.
Both clubs' current shape is ranked against the rest of the division on the Premier League power rankings.
What the model says
The Statz model projects a Tottenham Hotspur win at 47.2%. bet365 price the home side at 2.00, which implies a fair probability of about 47.4% once the margin comes out. That is as close to agreement as the model ever gets. Everton are projected at 25.3% against a 3.60 price implying 26.3%, leaving the draw with the remaining 27.5%. There is no edge in the match result here at all.
The disagreement is in the goals markets. Under 2.5 is projected at 55.3% against a 1.91 price implying 50.0%, a gap of 5.3 points and the largest on this fixture. Both teams to score - No follows at 51.3% against 2.00, which implies 46.7%, a gap of 4.6. Add the two team lines together, 1.46 plus 1.00, and you get 2.46 projected goals: below the line, and consistent with a market that has not yet marked Spurs down for three blank league games.
Darren England takes the whistle. Across two league games this season he has averaged 19.0 fouls and 3.5 yellow cards.
Statz Bet Builder
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Betting angles
Here is the fixture's oddity. Everton commit fewer fouls than any other side in the division, and yet the model's value board for this match is almost entirely Everton fouls. The reason is distribution rather than volume: the few fouls Everton do commit are concentrated in two midfielders.
Merlin Röhl is the top line on the board. The model projects him at 1.49 fouls and rates 1+ at 77.5%, against a 1.36 price implying 73.5% at the time of writing. His 2+ line is the bigger disagreement: 43.9% projected against 2.63, which implies 38.0%. Assuming he starts, that is the clearest number in the fixture.
James Garner sits just behind on a 1.18 foul projection, with 2+ fouls rated 33.0% against 3.25 at the time of writing. He has committed at least one foul in four of his last five, with a three-foul game among them. Assuming he starts, it is the same read as Röhl at a longer price.
At the other end, Thierno Barry is the shot volume in this fixture: 1.97 shots projected, two or more shots in four of his last five appearances and in each of the last three, and a 1+ shots on target line rated 54.2% against 1.91, which implies 52.4%. Assuming he starts, he is the most likely Everton player to test AntonÃn Kinský. Spurs' own best foul number belongs to Rodrigo Bentancur, who has committed two or more in each of his last five, though the 1.22 on 1+ has already caught up with that.
More of the same across Saturday's card is on the fouls bet builder of the day, and the daily acca pulls the best of the round into one slip.
Season numbers for every player named here are on the Premier League player stats page.
Prediction
The model's call is a narrow home win in a quiet game: Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 Everton. That squares the 47.2% home projection with the two leans the model actually holds, Under 2.5 at 55.3% and both teams to score - No at 51.3%. Spurs have kept a clean sheet in one of three and not scored in any, so the margin is thin in both directions. A projection, not a promise.
Champions League tickets
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18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at the time of writing.