Brighton & Hove Albion host Arsenal at 15:00 UK on Saturday 19 September. Arsenal lead the league with twelve points from four and have won their last five in all competitions.
This is the best attack in the division against the best defence, and the model has a clear view on which one holds.
Brighton & Hove Albion are fifth on seven points and have scored thirteen goals, more than anyone. Their 2.34 expected goals a game is the highest in the Premier League. The recent run reads 3-4 at Chelsea, 1-1 with Leeds United, 5-0 at Coventry City and a 3-2 win at Manchester United in the cup on Tuesday. They score everywhere and concede almost as freely - 1.81 expected goals against a game.
Arsenal have won five in a row and conceded one goal in four league games, at 0.75 expected goals against per match. Both are the best figures in England by a distance. The run: 1-0 at Aston Villa, 2-1 against Chelsea, 1-0 at Napoli in the Champions League, 2-0 at Sunderland, 4-2 at Ipswich Town in the cup.
Arsenal are unbeaten in the last five meetings and have won three of them, including 1-0 at this ground in March.
This is the model's biggest edge of the entire round at 6.1 points: under 2.5 goals at 51 percent against an implied 45, priced 11/10. No goals at both ends is 50 percent at 21/20, 4.6 clear. Brighton & Hove Albion to win is 20 percent at 4/1.
Under 2.5 is our Premier League betting predictions selection. It is a genuine argument rather than a formality: a side creating 2.34 expected goals a game is not an obvious unders bet, and if Brighton & Hove Albion score first this gets loud quickly. The model is saying the Arsenal defensive number is the more reliable of the two, and four games of evidence at 0.75 against is hard to dismiss.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Darren England, 4.28 cards and 21.41 fouls per game across 32 matches - the second-strictest Premier League appointment this weekend behind Stuart Attwell. Full list in Referee Watch.
Season expected-goals numbers for every side are on the Premier League xG table, and per-90 player figures on the Premier League player stats page.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Arsenal have not conceded more than once in a league game all season and have won five straight. Brighton & Hove Albion will create - they always do - but the model backs the defence, and so do we.
Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion 0-1 Arsenal.
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