Real Madrid host Villarreal at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid on 10 October 2026 at 20:00 in La Liga. Real Madrid's last five results: L W W W L (3 wins and 2 losses). Villarreal's last five: L L L W W (2 wins and 3 losses). In their last 6 meetings, Real Madrid have won 5, Villarreal 0, with 1 draw.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal kicks off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 10 October 2026 in La Liga, at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, the home ground of Real Madrid.
Real Madrid's last five results read L W W W L (oldest to newest): 3 wins and 2 losses.
Villarreal's last five results read L L L W W (oldest to newest): 2 wins and 3 losses.
Across the last 6 meetings Real Madrid have won 5, Villarreal have won 0 and 1 was drawn. The most recent was Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid on 24 January 2026 in the La Liga.
Kylian Mbappé leads Real Madrid with 8 goals across their last 10 games.
Georges Mikautadze leads Villarreal with 4 goals across their last 10 games.
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Real Madrid and Villarreal are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Real Madrid the favourite with a 65% chance of winning, against 16% for Villarreal and 19% for the draw. Projected goals are Real Madrid 2.5 - 1.2 Villarreal.
The most likely scoreline is 2-1, a Real Madrid win, at 9%. Both teams to score is 64% likely and over 2.5 goals 70%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz AI projects goals, shots, fouls, cards and more for every player and both teams in the Projections tab, and the Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | La Liga | Villarreal vs Real Madrid | 0-2 |
| 4 Oct 2025 | La Liga | Real Madrid vs Villarreal | 3-1 |
| 15 Mar 2025 | La Liga | Villarreal vs Real Madrid | 1-2 |
| 5 Oct 2024 | La Liga | Real Madrid vs Villarreal | 2-0 |
| 19 May 2024 | La Liga | Villarreal vs Real Madrid | 4-4 |
| 17 Dec 2023 | La Liga | Real Madrid vs Villarreal | 4-1 |
Statz's projection model expects Real Madrid 2.5 - 1.2 Villarreal in goals. It gives Real Madrid a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Villarreal 16%. Both teams to score is 64% likely, over 1.5 goals 88% and over 2.5 goals 70%. The most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 3-0 (7%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | Real Madrid win | 9% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 8% |
| 2-0 | Real Madrid win | 8% |
| 3-1 | Real Madrid win | 8% |
| 3-0 | Real Madrid win | 7% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Real Madrid vs Villarreal, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Real Madrid | Fouls committed | Villarreal | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Bellingham | 10 | S. Comesaña | 13 |
| 2 | V. Junior | 8 | S. Mouriño | 10 |
| 3 | K. Mbappé | 8 | R. Veiga | 9 |
| 4 | I. Konaté | 8 | T. Buchanan | 9 |
| 5 | E. Camavinga | 7 | A. Pérez | 7 |
| # | Real Madrid | Shots | Villarreal | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Mbappé | 55 | G. Mikautadze | 23 |
| 2 | V. Junior | 26 | A. Pérez | 20 |
| 3 | J. Bellingham | 19 | N. Pépé | 18 |
| 4 | A. Güler | 11 | A. Moleiro | 13 |
| 5 | F. Valverde | 7 | T. Buchanan | 11 |
| # | Real Madrid | Shots on target | Villarreal | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Mbappé | 24 | G. Mikautadze | 14 |
| 2 | J. Bellingham | 10 | A. Pérez | 9 |
| 3 | V. Junior | 7 | N. Pépé | 8 |
| 4 | A. Güler | 4 | A. Moleiro | 7 |
| 5 | B. DÃaz | 3 | P. Gueye | 5 |
| # | Real Madrid | Goals | Villarreal | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Mbappé | 8 | G. Mikautadze | 4 |
| 2 | J. Bellingham | 5 | P. Gueye | 4 |
| 3 | V. Junior | 2 | G. Moreno | 3 |
| 4 | C. Espà | 2 | A. Pérez | 3 |
| 5 | B. DÃaz | 1 | A. Moleiro | 2 |
| # | Real Madrid | Yellow cards | Villarreal | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | I. Konaté | 3 | R. Veiga | 3 |
| 2 | J. Bellingham | 2 | S. Mouriño | 3 |
| 3 | E. Camavinga | 2 | T. Buchanan | 2 |
| 4 | V. Junior | 2 | J. Foyth | 2 |
| 5 | T. Pitarch | 1 | A. Pérez | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Ayoze Pérez 1+ shots on target (80% hit rate at 1.50); Vinicius Junior 1+ shots on target (80% hit rate at 1.20); Tajon Buchanan 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.22); Alberto Moleiro 2+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.22). Combined odds 2.68 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2.6 | 2 of 20 |
| Goals against | 1.1 | 9 of 20 |
| Shots | 18.9 | 2 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 7.6 | 2 of 20 |
| Fouls | 8.4 | 20 of 20 |
| Tackles | 14.9 | 17 of 20 |
| Passes | 526.3 | 5 of 20 |
| Corners | 6.9 | 4 of 20 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.9 | 5 of 20 |
| Goals against | 1.7 | 12 of 20 |
| Shots | 16 | 5 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 6.6 | 3 of 20 |
| Fouls | 10.3 | 16 of 20 |
| Tackles | 14.9 | 18 of 20 |
| Passes | 595.6 | 2 of 20 |
| Corners | 7.3 | 3 of 20 |