Updated 15 November 2026.
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | Toluca win | 8.9% |
| 2-1 | Pachuca win | 7.9% |
| 0-1 | Toluca win | 6.9% |
| 2-2 | Draw | 6.5% |
| 0-2 | Toluca win | 6.1% |
| 1-0 | Pachuca win | 6.0% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 5.0% |
| 1-3 | Toluca win | 4.9% |
| 2-0 | Pachuca win | 4.8% |
| Market | Chance |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Pachuca clean sheet | 19% |
| Toluca clean sheet | 23% |
The most likely score in Pachuca vs Toluca is 1-1, a 11% chance in the Statz model, ahead of 1-2 at 9%. The Liga MX game kicks off at 22:50 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026, and the projection refreshes as the team news lands.
The Statz model projects Pachuca 1.46 - 1.65 Toluca in goals for Pachuca vs Toluca, with over 2.5 goals 60% likely and both teams to score 62%.
Pachuca host Toluca at Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto on 21 November 2026 at 22:50 in Liga MX. Pachuca's last five results: L L W W W (3 wins and 2 losses). Toluca's last five: D D D D W (1 win and 4 draws). In their last 6 meetings, Pachuca have won 2, Toluca 1, with 3 draws.
Pachuca vs Toluca kicks off at 22:50 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026 in Liga MX, at Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto. Estadio Hidalgo holds 30,000 people. The confirmed lineups replace the predicted XIs on this page about an hour before kick-off, and the live score and match stats follow from 22:50.
Pachuca vs Toluca is being played at Estadio Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto on Saturday 21 November 2026, the home ground of Pachuca, which holds 30,000 people. Kick-off is at 22:50 UK time, and the match is part of Liga MX.
Pachuca have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 and conceding 6, with results reading L L W W W from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 4-1 win away to Atlas in the Liga MX on 7 November.
Toluca have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 and conceding 6, with results reading D D D D W from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 4-0 win at home to Monterrey in the Liga MX on 8 November.
Across the last 6 meetings Pachuca have won 2, Toluca have won 1 and 3 were drawn, with Pachuca scoring 10 goals to Toluca's 8. The most recent was Pachuca 2-0 Toluca on 11 May 2026 in the Liga MX.
Salomón Rondón leads Pachuca with 10 goals across their last 10 games, 1.0 a game, the most of any Pachuca player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Pachuca player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Federico Viñas leads Toluca with 6 goals across their last 10 games, 0.6 a game, the most of any Toluca player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Toluca player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Until the team news for Pachuca vs Toluca is in, the Lineups tab shows the XI each side last started with: Pachuca's XI from their 4-1 win at Atlas on Sat 7 Nov 2026, and Toluca's XI from their 4-0 win v Monterrey at home on Sun 8 Nov 2026. Predicted lineups replace them once the team news is in, and the confirmed XIs about an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Toluca the favourite with a 42% chance of winning, against 34% for Pachuca and 25% for the draw. Projected goals are Pachuca 1.5 - 1.7 Toluca.
The most likely score in Pachuca vs Toluca is 1-1, a draw, at 11%, from Statz's projection model. Both teams to score is 62% likely and over 2.5 goals 60%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz projects 9 player markets for Pachuca vs Toluca, from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes, for every starter on the Projections tab of this page. The Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365, and the match projection gives each side's chance of winning.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Liga MX | Pachuca vs Toluca | 2-0 |
| 4 May 2026 | Liga MX | Toluca vs Pachuca | 0-1 |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Liga MX | Pachuca vs Toluca | 1-1 |
| 27 Oct 2025 | Liga MX | Toluca vs Pachuca | 2-2 |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Liga MX | Toluca vs Pachuca | 3-2 |
| 18 Sep 2024 | Liga MX | Pachuca vs Toluca | 2-2 |
Statz's projection model expects Pachuca 1.5 - 1.7 Toluca in goals. It gives Pachuca a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Toluca 42%. Both teams to score is 62% likely, over 1.5 goals 82% and over 2.5 goals 60%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 0-1 (7%), 2-2 (6%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 11% |
| 1-2 | Toluca win | 9% |
| 2-1 | Pachuca win | 8% |
| 0-1 | Toluca win | 7% |
| 2-2 | Draw | 6% |
Predicted lineups for Pachuca vs Toluca are not in yet, so these are the XIs each side last started with: Pachuca's XI from their 4-1 win at Atlas on Sat 7 Nov 2026, and Toluca's XI from their 4-0 win v Monterrey at home on Sun 8 Nov 2026.
| # | Pachuca | Fouls committed | Toluca | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C. Rivera | 21 | J. Gallardo | 21 |
| 2 | S. Barreto | 17 | F. Pereira | 13 |
| 3 | S. Rondón | 15 | A. Vega | 11 |
| 4 | F. Venegas | 13 | F. Romero | 11 |
| 5 | J. Vázquez | 11 | F. Viñas | 11 |
| # | Pachuca | Shots | Toluca | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. Rondón | 50 | Paulinho | 32 |
| 2 | O. Idrissi | 19 | F. Viñas | 26 |
| 3 | J. Vallejo | 18 | Helinho | 23 |
| 4 | E. Bauermann | 12 | N. Castro | 20 |
| 5 | A. Gutiérrez | 10 | A. Vega | 16 |
| # | Pachuca | Shots on target | Toluca | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. Rondón | 17 | Helinho | 13 |
| 2 | O. Idrissi | 7 | Paulinho | 11 |
| 3 | J. Vallejo | 7 | F. Viñas | 9 |
| 4 | E. Bauermann | 6 | N. Castro | 7 |
| 5 | Kenedy | 4 | A. Vega | 7 |
| # | Pachuca | Goals | Toluca | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. Rondón | 10 | F. Viñas | 6 |
| 2 | O. Idrissi | 3 | Paulinho | 5 |
| 3 | E. Bauermann | 2 | A. Vega | 4 |
| 4 | Kenedy | 2 | Helinho | 2 |
| 5 | A. Gutiérrez | 2 | N. Castro | 1 |
| # | Pachuca | Yellow cards | Toluca | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. Barreto | 4 | Helinho | 3 |
| 2 | F. Venegas | 4 | F. Pereira | 2 |
| 3 | R. Pizarro | 3 | F. Romero | 2 |
| 4 | C. Nava | 3 | B. Méndez | 2 |
| 5 | A. Gutiérrez | 2 | J. Gallardo | 1 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.8 | 4 of 18 |
| Goals against | 1.3 | 3 of 18 |
| Shots | 16 | 4 of 18 |
| Shots on target | 4.9 | 10 of 18 |
| Fouls | 15 | 1 of 18 |
| Tackles | 18.4 | 2 of 18 |
| Passes | 375.1 | 14 of 18 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 13 of 18 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2.3 | 2 of 18 |
| Goals against | 1.3 | 5 of 18 |
| Shots | 18.6 | 2 of 18 |
| Shots on target | 6.3 | 3 of 18 |
| Fouls | 11.6 | 11 of 18 |
| Tackles | 17.4 | 5 of 18 |
| Passes | 517.4 | 2 of 18 |
| Corners | 7 | 3 of 18 |