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CoursesNewsBetting GuidesUpdated 30 October 2026, after round one
The model this week
119 players simulated over 72 holes
Overall Winner
Win probability from the current leaderboard
K. VilipsKarl Vilips-9 to par ↑5619.9%to win
D. GhimDoug Ghim-6 to par ↓114.1%to winB. GriffinBen Griffin-7 to par ↑159.4%to winJ. SuberJackson Suber-5 to par ↑54.9%to winFirst Round Leader
Softmax over projected opening rounds
D. GhimDoug GhimR1 65.04.8%
T. KimTom KimR1 67.02.5%W. ClarkWyndham ClarkR1 71.02.5%N. ShipleyNeal ShipleyR1 68.02.5%DraftKings
Projected fantasy points for the DFS slate
K. VilipsKarl VilipsProj. -1197.3ptsD. GhimDoug GhimProj. -1195.4ptsB. GriffinBen GriffinProj. -1091.2ptsJ. SuberJackson SuberProj. -884.2ptsKarl Vilips is the Statz model's favourite to win the VidantaWorld Mexico Open 2026, with a 19.9% chance across the 119-player field, standing at -9 to par after round one.
The Statz model projects a winning score of -11 to par at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open 2026, simulating all 119 players in the field over 72 holes from their strokes gained form and course fit with their scores after round one built in.
The Statz model projects the 36-hole cut at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open 2026 to fall at -4 to par, with 60 of the 119 players more likely than not to play the weekend.
Favourite: Karl Vilips, 19.9% to win. Projected winning score: -11 to par. Projected 36-hole cut: -4 to par. Field: 119 players, each simulated over 72 holes.
Updated 30 October 2026, after round one.
| Rank | Player | World ranking | Win chance | Top 10 chance | To par |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Vilips | 232 | 19.9% | 72.0% | -9 |
| 2 | Doug Ghim | 97 | 14.1% | 63.9% | -6 |
| 3 | Ben Griffin | 28 | 9.4% | 54.8% | -7 |
| 4 | Marco Penge | 53 | 6.7% | 47.0% | -7 |
| 5 | Jackson Suber | 100 | 4.9% | 39.3% | -5 |
| 6 | Tom Kim | 30 | 3.6% | 35.2% | -4 |
| 7 | Adrien Dumont de Chassart | 228 | 2.6% | 29.0% | -7 |
| 8 | Max Greyserman | 102 | 2.4% | 26.3% | -6 |
| 9 | Mackenzie Hughes | 185 | 2.2% | 27.0% | -6 |
| 10 | Max Homa | 76 | 2.2% | 26.3% | -5 |
| Rank | Player | World ranking | Win chance | Top 10 chance | To par |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Vilips | 232 | 19.9% | 72.0% | -9 |
| 2 | Doug Ghim | 97 | 14.1% | 63.9% | -6 |
| 3 | Ben Griffin | 28 | 9.4% | 54.8% | -7 |
| 4 | Marco Penge | 53 | 6.7% | 47.0% | -7 |
| 5 | Jackson Suber | 100 | 4.9% | 39.3% | -5 |
| 6 | Tom Kim | 30 | 3.6% | 35.2% | -4 |
| 7 | Adrien Dumont de Chassart | 228 | 2.6% | 29.0% | -7 |
| 8 | Mackenzie Hughes | 185 | 2.2% | 27.0% | -6 |
| 9 | Max Homa | 76 | 2.2% | 26.3% | -5 |
| 10 | Max Greyserman | 102 | 2.4% | 26.3% | -6 |