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NewsBetting GuidesTipsUpdated 10 November 2026
132 players simulated over 72 holes
D. GhimDoug Ghimprojected -12 over 72 holes
D. GhimDoug GhimTo finish top 5
Model probability against the book, all markets
1D. GhimDoug GhimTop 5, 28.2% projection+9.1%5.3B. KohlesBen KohlesTop 5, 17.0% projection+5.8%9.0
S. PowerSeamus PowerTop 5, 14.7% projection+3.6%9.0C. KirkChris KirkTop 5, 15.8% projection+3.4%8.0Win probability over the full field
1D. GhimDoug GhimWorld #918.9%B. KohlesBen KohlesWorld #924.5%B. BrownBlades BrownWorld #624.0%C. KirkChris KirkWorld #1053.8%Outright prices worth more than the book thinks
1D. GhimDoug Ghim8.9% projection, 5.9% market+3.0%17.0B. KohlesBen Kohles4.5% projection, 2.9% market+1.6%34.0S. PowerSeamus Power3.7% projection, 2.8% market+0.9%36.0
S. YellamarajuSudarshan Yellamaraju2.7% projection, 2.0% market+0.7%51.0Chance to lead after round 1
1C. RussellCasey RussellR1 72.00.5%451.0M. ThompsonMichael ThompsonR1 72.00.5%301.0
A. SaddierAdrien SaddierR1 71.00.9%126.0A. EwartA.J. EwartR1 72.00.9%111.0N. LindheimNicholas LindheimR1 73.00.2%401.0Our pick in each nationality and group market
D. GhimDoug GhimTop American13.0Projected fantasy points for the DFS slate
1D. GhimDoug GhimProj. -1286.8ptsS. PowerSeamus PowerProj. -1077.1ptsB. BrownBlades BrownProj. -1075.7ptsC. KirkChris KirkProj. -1075.6ptsDoug Ghim is the Statz model's favourite to win the Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions 2026, with a 8.9% chance across the 132-player field, projected to finish at -12 to par over 72 holes.
The Statz model projects a winning score of -12 to par at the Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions 2026, simulating all 132 players in the field over 72 holes from their strokes gained form and course fit.
The Statz model projects the 36-hole cut at the Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions 2026 to fall at -2 to par, with 64 of the 132 players more likely than not to play the weekend.
Favourite: Doug Ghim, 8.9% to win. Projected winning score: -12 to par. Projected 36-hole cut: -2 to par. Field: 132 players, each simulated over 72 holes.
Updated 10 November 2026.
| Rank | Player | World ranking | Win chance | Top 10 chance | First round leader chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doug Ghim | 91 | 8.9% | 42.3% | 1.8% |
| 2 | Jordan Smith | 67 | 4.6% | 30.0% | 1.8% |
| 3 | Ben Kohles | 92 | 4.5% | 28.0% | 1.8% |
| 4 | Blades Brown | 62 | 4.0% | 29.3% | 1.8% |
| 5 | Chris Kirk | 105 | 3.8% | 27.6% | 1.8% |
| 6 | Seamus Power | 137 | 3.7% | 25.8% | 1.8% |
| 7 | Jackson Koivun | 60 | 3.6% | 29.1% | 1.8% |
| 8 | Austin Smotherman | 51 | 3.4% | 22.2% | 1.8% |
| 9 | Andrew Novak | 61 | 3.3% | 22.7% | 1.8% |
| 10 | Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 116 | 2.7% | 19.9% | 1.8% |
| Rank | Player | World ranking | Win chance | Top 10 chance | First round leader chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doug Ghim | 91 | 8.9% | 42.3% | 1.8% |
| 2 | Jordan Smith | 67 | 4.6% | 30.0% | 1.8% |
| 3 | Blades Brown | 62 | 4.0% | 29.3% | 1.8% |
| 4 | Jackson Koivun | 60 | 3.6% | 29.1% | 1.8% |
| 5 | Ben Kohles | 92 | 4.5% | 28.0% | 1.8% |
| 6 | Chris Kirk | 105 | 3.8% | 27.6% | 1.8% |
| 7 | Seamus Power | 137 | 3.7% | 25.8% | 1.8% |
| 8 | Andrew Novak | 61 | 3.3% | 22.7% | 1.8% |
| 9 | Austin Smotherman | 51 | 3.4% | 22.2% | 1.8% |
| 10 | Kristoffer Ventura | 142 | 2.1% | 21.9% | 1.8% |
| Rank | Player | World ranking | Win chance | Top 10 chance | First round leader chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doug Ghim | 91 | 8.9% | 42.3% | 1.8% |
| 2 | Jackson Koivun | 60 | 3.6% | 29.1% | 1.8% |
| 3 | Blades Brown | 62 | 4.0% | 29.3% | 1.8% |
| 4 | Jordan Smith | 67 | 4.6% | 30.0% | 1.8% |
| 5 | Chris Kirk | 105 | 3.8% | 27.6% | 1.8% |
| 6 | Ben Kohles | 92 | 4.5% | 28.0% | 1.8% |
| 7 | Seamus Power | 137 | 3.7% | 25.8% | 1.8% |
| 8 | Kristoffer Ventura | 142 | 2.1% | 21.9% | 1.8% |
| 9 | Andrew Novak | 61 | 3.3% | 22.7% | 1.8% |
| 10 | Austin Smotherman | 51 | 3.4% | 22.2% | 1.8% |
