FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026 Betting Preview – Three Picks for TPC Southwind

The FedExCup Playoffs begin at TPC Southwind this week (13–16 August), where the top 70 in the standings play for $20m and a place in the next stage. Seventy players, no cut, four rounds of gettable-but-not-generous golf: the Statz model projects a winning score of 16 under, four shots tougher than last week's Wyndham birdie-fest.

What does it take to win at TPC Southwind?

The Ron Prichard-designed TPC Southwind is a par 70 of 7,288 yards on Bermudagrass, and it asks a more balanced question than most. Iron play still leads our demand profile at 36%, but this venue gives the driver more to do than Sedgefield did - off the tee is weighted at 24.5%, with putting at 28% and around-the-green at 12%. Water lurks on the closing stretch, which is why the winning score here averages 15.8 under rather than the 20s we saw last week.

The recent top tens have averaged +0.70 strokes gained on approach and +0.54 putting per round. And the roll of honour reads like a list of complete players: Justin Rose (2025), Hideki Matsuyama (2024), Lucas Glover (2023) and Will Zalatoris (2022). Our course fit guide explains how to read demand profiles like this one.

How we are staking this week

A word on structure, because it changes the bet. This is a 70-man field with no cut - every player completes 72 holes, and bookmakers respond by trimming each-way place terms. That matters most at the top of the market: at 5/1, a quarter of the odds for a place is a thin return for half your stake, so our headline selection is a win-only single. Further down the card, where the prices are 22/1 and 60/1, the places still pay properly and both selections are each-way. Our each-way guide covers exactly when the places are worth taking.

The other thing a playoff field does is sharpen the market. Across all 70 players, only four beat their price on our model - and the likes of Xander Schauffele (-3.5 points), Ludvig Åberg (-2.9) and Collin Morikawa (-2.1) are all shorter than our numbers justify. This is a week to bet less, not more.

Selection 1: Scottie Scheffler - 3pts win at 5/1 (bet365)

We do not often lead with the favourite. This week the Statz model leaves no choice: Scheffler projects at 27.4% to win against a bet365 price implying 16.7% - a +10.7 point edge, the largest single edge on any board we have published this season. Everything underneath it agrees. He has the strongest course-fit score in the field at 92%, he leads all 70 entrants in strokes gained over his last 16 rounds (+2.39 per round), and his recent finishes read 2nd, 4th, MC, 2nd, 4th. The model gives him a 79% chance of a top-10 and the first-round-leader lead at 5.8%. At 5/1 in a no-cut field, we want the win.

Selection 2: Hideki Matsuyama - 1.5pts EW at 22/1 (bet365)

Two things stand out about Matsuyama this week. He won this tournament in 2024 - a 69% course-history score, among the best in the field - and he is second only to Scheffler in strokes gained across this entire field over his last 16 rounds (+2.23 per round). The scorecard says the same: finishes of 7th, 5th and 3rd in his last three starts. The model ranks him #7 with a 28% top-10 projection.

In the interest of showing our working: this is the one selection where we are overruling our own numbers. The model prices Matsuyama below his 22/1 - its course-fit and course-setup scores for him are low, which drags the composite down. We think a former champion of this event arriving in the best form of anyone bar the world number one is worth more than those two factors allow. When the model and the eye disagree, we would rather say so than quietly pick a side.

Selection 3: Kurt Kitayama - 1pt EW at 60/1 (bet365)

If you want a price, Kitayama is the only one the model can defend. He is the highest-rated player available at 60/1 or bigger - ranked #16 with a 1.87% win chance against 1.6% implied, where the alternatives at similar prices project at a quarter of that. His profile fits: 84% course fit and an 86% course-setup score, plus a 24% top-10 projection. The honest caveat is his iron play, which ranks 40th in this field over his last 16 rounds - at a venue where approach is the leading demand, that is the risk you are taking at the price.

The winner we are leaving out

One name deserves an explanation. Michael Brennan won the Wyndham Championship on Sunday, has the best course-setup score in this field (97%), and shows a positive edge at 55/1. On the numbers alone he would make this card. He does not make it because back-to-back victories on the PGA Tour are genuinely rare events, and a price of 55/1 does not compensate for asking a player to do something that seldom happens. We would rather be honest about that than dress a storyline up as a bet.

FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026 - the picks

• Scottie Scheffler - 3pts win at 5/1 (27.4% model win chance vs 16.7% implied; 92% course fit, field-leading form)
• Hideki Matsuyama - 1.5pts EW at 22/1 (2024 champion here; 2nd in field on form behind only Scheffler)
• Kurt Kitayama - 1pt EW at 60/1 (best-rated player available at the price; 84% fit, 86% setup)

All prices bet365. Scheffler is a win-only single; Matsuyama and Kitayama are each-way, 1/4 odds, 5 places. 8pts total staked, per the Statz tipster plan, which now stands at +45.5 points across 13 settled events and a 43.8% return on investment after Tom Kim placed 5th for us at the Wyndham. Follow the numbers all week on the FedEx St. Jude Championship hub - projections re-run as the odds move. For a different cut of the same field, our FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026 Power Rankings counts down the top 10 on form, venue fit and Memphis pedigree, and comes out in a notably different order.

How it finished: Scottie Scheffler won by eight shots on 17 under, returning 15pts on the 3pt win single, while Hideki Matsuyama (T7) and Kurt Kitayama (T12) missed the places for a week of +10pts. Read the full FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026 review for the winner's strokes-gained week, an honest scorecard on the course profile above, and every pick settled.