FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026 Power Rankings – Top 10 Contenders at TPC Southwind

The FedExCup Playoffs open at TPC Southwind in Memphis this week (13-16 August), where 69 players compete for a $20m purse with no cut. Ron Prichard's par 70 measures 7,288 yards over zoysia fairways and Bermuda greens, and it is a consistent test: across the three most recent editions analysed by Statz, the winning score has averaged 15.75 under par. Justin Rose is the defending champion, following Hideki Matsuyama (2024), Lucas Glover (2023) and Will Zalatoris (2022).

How the Statz Power Index works

These rankings are built from four public inputs, and they are deliberately not the Statz projections list. Our model output, its win probabilities and its projected totals stay behind the Pro projections wall. What follows is a separate exercise you can audit yourself.

The Power Index weights: Statz Rankings index for the 69-man field (35%), which is our recency-weighted, field-adjusted measure of underlying class; last-24-round SG total (20%), the medium-term form window; venue skill match (30%), each player's last-24 strokes-gained splits weighted by what Southwind actually demands; and venue pedigree (15%), the better of their finishes in the last two editions here. Southwind's demand profile is approach-first: approach 36.0% and putting 27.8% account for nearly two-thirds of the separation, with off-the-tee at 24.5% and around-the-green at 11.7%. All strokes-gained ranks below are Tour-wide.

10. Rory McIlroy

Second in the Statz Rankings among this field and first on Tour off the tee over his last 24 rounds (+1.04), McIlroy is held back by the two categories Southwind cares about most: approach sits 72nd (+0.30) and putting 115th (+0.06). His L16 form is strong, ninth in the field at +1.83, and the Masters title in April is on his 2026 card. But the venue record is thin: T68 in 2024, and he skipped the event entirely last year. A T3 in 2023 proves the fit exists when the irons behave.

9. Sam Burns

Burns keeps turning up in Memphis: T5 in 2024, T28 last year, T20 in 2022. He is 10th in the field on the Statz index and 10th on L16 form (+1.81), and the putter remains the asset, 34th on Tour over 24 rounds (+0.52). The reservation is the short game, where he sits 113th (+0.05), and an approach number (66th, +0.33) that is solid rather than the weapon this course asks for.

8. J.J. Spaun

Nobody has a fresher Southwind memory than Spaun, who finished second here last year. He is fifth on Tour in approach play over his last 24 rounds (+0.94), mapping directly onto the venue's biggest demand. The problem is the other end: 187th in putting (-0.27) is a serious drag where the flat stick carries 27.8% of the weight. His L16 form ranks 24th in this field. Elite irons, cold putter, a course that needs both.

7. Jackson Koivun

The rookie is not a novelty pick. Koivun ranks third on Tour in SG total over his last 24 rounds (+2.05), fourth in this field on L16 form (+2.03), with 13th in approach (+0.82) and 26th off the tee (+0.51). He won the 3M Open in July and has added T10 at the ISCO Championship, T23 at the US Open and T29 at the Wyndham. The only thing missing is Memphis: he has never played this tournament, so the pedigree component scores him zero. On ball-striking alone he would rank higher.

6. Si Woo Kim

A quietly excellent profile for this test. Kim is fifth in the field on the Statz index, seventh on Tour in L24 SG total (+1.70), with no weak category: 45th off the tee, 35th approach, 16th around the green, 57th putting. That balance is what a 7,288-yard par 70 rewards. He was T14 here last year and T16 in 2023. His L16 form (17th in field, +1.20) is the mild caveat.

5. Matt Fitzpatrick

Third in the Statz Rankings among this field, with the short game in outstanding shape: 11th on Tour in approach (+0.88) and third around the green (+0.64). He is sixth in the field on L16 form at +1.96. What keeps him off the podium is the putter, 149th over 24 rounds (-0.08), and a Memphis record that has cooled since his T5 in 2022: T18 in 2024, T32 last year.

4. Wyndham Clark

The Power Index likes Clark far more than his 19th place in the field's Statz Rankings suggests, and the reason is stark: he is the number one putter on Tour over his last 24 rounds (+1.23) and seventh around the green (+0.53), on a course where those two skills carry 39.5% of the demand. Add second on Tour in L24 SG total (+2.12) and a T7 here in 2024 and the case is loud. The hole in it is real, though: 161st off the tee (-0.08) is last-resort driving, and last year's T56 in Memphis came with it.

3. Hideki Matsuyama

The 2024 champion arrives second in this field on L16 form (+2.23) and ninth on Tour in L24 SG total (+1.63). His signature remains the short game, second on Tour around the green (+0.65), and he complements it with a tidy approach number (55th, +0.37). The full venue record reads win, T16 and T17 across the last three editions, the most reliable Memphis form line in the field. Only a modest driving rank (85th, +0.25) keeps him off the top two.

2. Tommy Fleetwood

Fleetwood has three top-25s here in three visits, including T3 in both 2023 and 2025, and is fourth in the field on the Statz index. He ranks eighth on Tour in L24 SG total (+1.65) and fifth in the field on L16 form (+2.03), with a profile that has no leak: 31st off the tee, 51st approach, 17th around the green, 52nd putting. This course keeps identifying the same player, and the numbers say he arrives in the best shape of the three trips.

1. Scottie Scheffler

No argument available. Scheffler is first on Tour in L24 SG total (+2.44), first in this field on L16 form (+2.39), first in the Statz Rankings, and fourth on Tour in approach play (+0.94) at the venue that prizes it most. He is 13th off the tee and 21st in putting, with only the around-the-green number (52nd) below elite. Memphis has seen it: T3 last year, fourth in 2024. His 2026 card includes second at the 3M Open, T4 at The Open and second at the Travelers. Top of an index built four different ways is as close to consensus as golf gets.

The name that's missing

Xander Schauffele. He ranks 17th in this field on the Statz index and has the best Memphis pedigree of anyone outside our top three, T2 in 2024 plus T22, T24 and T57 in the surrounding years, and our own model rates him far more highly than this list does. The Power Index buries him at 23rd for one blunt reason: his last-24 splits point the wrong way for Southwind. He is ninth on Tour off the tee (+0.67), but 156th in approach (-0.09) and 138th in putting (-0.05), the two categories worth 63.8% of the separation here. He does not make the top 25 of the field's L16 form table, and his L24 SG total ranks 58th.

That is the honest disagreement. A form-and-fit index reads recent splits and marks him down; a model weighting underlying class and course history more heavily sees a player who has contended here before and is one hot approach week from doing it again. Which side you take is the week's most interesting question. Our full model ordering, win probabilities and the selections that follow from them are in this week's FedEx St. Jude Championship betting preview, and the complete field ranking is on the Statz projections page.

How the index did: eight of these ten finished inside the top 25, with Si Woo Kim (6) second, Sam Burns (9) tied third and Wyndham Clark (4) tied fifth, while Scottie Scheffler won by eight. Xander Schauffele, the name we buried at 23rd, tied for seventh. Full breakdown in the FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026 review.