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Cricket Projections

Go Pro for every side's chancesCricket Pro opens every side's chance to win, reach the final and finish in each place. Go Pro Already a member? Log in

ICC World Test Championship Outrights: Projected Table and Odds

Our simulated chances against the bookmaker's: the chance to win, reach the final and finish in each place, the market's chance, the edge and the best price.

Pricesbet365 Projections updated Tue 10 Nov · 09:05 GMT
Actual Predicted Reach final Finish top
# Team Form P Pts PCT Avg Likely Proj
Final places
1 New ZealandNew Zealand WWLWW 6 52 72.22% 2.5 3rd 50.3%22.3%

New Zealand: played 6, won 4, lost 1, drawn 1, 52 points, PCT 72.22%.

Chance of each finishing place
22%1st 28%2nd 34%3rd 10%4th 3.8%5th 1.3%6th 0.2%7th 0.0%8th 0.0%9th
2 South AfricaS Africa WWLWW 7 60 71.43%

South Africa: played 7, won 5, lost 2, 60 points, PCT 71.43%.

Every side's finishing places are part of Cricket Pro. Go Pro ›
3 AustraliaAustralia LWWLL 13 108 69.23%

Australia: played 13, won 9, lost 4, 108 points, PCT 69.23%.

Every side's finishing places are part of Cricket Pro. Go Pro ›
4 IndiaIndia WLLWD 11 68 51.52%

India: played 11, won 5, lost 4, drawn 2, 68 points, PCT 51.52%.

Every side's finishing places are part of Cricket Pro. Go Pro ›
5 BangladeshBangladesh WWLLD 8 44 45.83%

Bangladesh: played 8, won 3, lost 3, drawn 2, 44 points, PCT 45.83%.

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6 EnglandEngland LLWWW 16 74 38.54%

England: played 16, won 7, lost 8, drawn 1, 74 points, PCT 38.54%.

Every side's finishing places are part of Cricket Pro. Go Pro ›
7 Sri LankaSri Lanka WLDLD 6 24 33.33%

Sri Lanka: played 6, won 1, lost 2, drawn 3, 24 points, PCT 33.33%.

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8 West IndiesW Indies DWLWD 14 46 27.38%

West Indies: played 14, won 3, lost 8, drawn 3, 46 points, PCT 27.38%.

Every side's finishing places are part of Cricket Pro. Go Pro ›
9 PakistanPakistan LWLLL 9 5 4.63%

Pakistan: played 9, won 2, lost 7, 5 points, PCT 4.63%.

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Prices from bet365 and subject to change. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org

Outrights puts our tournament model against the betting markets. Every remaining match is played out thousands of times on our match projections, and each side's chance of the trophy, the final, a top place and every finishing place sits beside the bookmaker's price and the chance it implies, with the edge where the market is behind the model. The World Test Championship shows the race for its two final places; the franchise leagues show the bookmaker's view from the day they are priced and our numbers from the first simulation.

Related Projections

Match ProjectionsEach match's win chance, projected totals and the best price, for the week ahead.View › Best BetsEvery market where our projections beat the price, ranked by edge.View › Dream11 ProjectionsEvery player's projected Dream11 points and the AI team for each match.View ›

Frequently Asked Questions

How are the outright chances worked out?
We play out every remaining match of the competition 5,000 times, each on its projected win chance from our match model, then count how often each side wins the trophy, reaches the final and finishes in each place. Matches already played count as they finished.
What does the edge show?
Our chance less the chance the bookmaker's price implies, which is 100 divided by the decimal price. A positive edge means we rate the side higher than the price does. The price carries the bookmaker's margin, so the implied chances add up to more than 100%.
Why do some competitions show only the bookmaker's prices?
We simulate a competition once its first match comes into range. Until then the page shows each side's price and the chance it implies, and our numbers join them from the first simulation.
How is the World Test Championship shown?
The top two in the table reach the final, a one-off Test, and the table is ranked on the percentage of points won, as the ICC ranks it. So the page shows each side's chance of reaching the final and of finishing top.
How often do the chances update?
Every time our projections re-run, so a result shows in the next update, with the time it was run beside the table.