Cricket Match Simulator

Each time our projections run, the model plays a match out ball by ball 10,000 times (6,000 for an ODI), once with each side batting first. Every ball is drawn from what has happened in that phase of the innings, with that many wickets down, against pace or spin, at that ground and in that competition, then tilted by the strength of the batting side against the bowling side. Each simulated innings ends when the overs run out, the tenth wicket falls or the chase is done.

Batting first and chasing are different games, so the simulator plays both. Before the toss the page weighs the two equally, and the switch lets you play either one. Once the toss is made it plays the match as it will be: the side that won the toss batting or bowling as it chose.

The first-innings score the chasing side wins from exactly half the time, read off the simulation. Post more than par and the side batting first is the favourite; post less and the chase is.

The replay draws 10,000 results in your browser from the simulation, so its count lands within a point or so of the model and then shows the model's figures. Run it again and the luck changes; the model does not. The model's win chances also take in the sides' head to head, the ground's record batting first and the market price, so the margins and the par score are scaled to agree with them.

Every upcoming T20 match we project, franchise leagues and T20 internationals, and ODIs and The Hundred while their projections are live. Test and first-class matches are not on it: four innings and the draw need a different model.

One upcoming match is open to everyone, the next one to start. Every other match's simulation is part of Cricket Pro.