New Zealand vs India 5th ODI Prediction (15 Nov): Projections & Preview

The Bay Oval is a batting-friendly ground. Across 8 ODI matches here, the average match total stands at 538.8 runs, with the average first-innings score at 285.8. Teams batting first have won exactly 50% of matches at this venue – no toss advantage to speak of.

Seam bowlers have taken 72.4% of wickets at an economy rate of 6.24, while spinners account for 19.7% of dismissals at 5.62 per over. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz. New Zealand have dominated here since 2021, winning all four of their ODIs at the ground, with Will Young their leading run-scorer with 233 runs across those matches. India’s sole visit here ended in defeat – they were bowled out for just 89 in 26.4 overs.

The toss will matter little here. Both sides win marginally better bowling first (New Zealand by 0.1 points, India by 0.1 points), but the difference is negligible – expect the captain to assess conditions on the day.

New Zealand

New Zealand have won their last match. Their last five results read:

• 13 Nov vs India (H): W – NZ 333/10, IND 89/10 (26.4)
• 10 Nov vs India (H): NR – Match abandoned without a ball bowled
• 7 Nov vs India (H): L – NZ 134/10 (41), IND 113/7 (26)
• 4 Nov vs India (H): L – NZ 185/10 (40.2), IND 143/5 (22.4)
• 21 Jul vs West Indies (A): L – NZ 268/9, WI 269/8 (47.3)

India

India have lost their last match. Their last five results read:

• 13 Nov vs New Zealand (A): L – IND 89/10 (26.4), NZ 333/10
• 10 Nov vs New Zealand (A): NR – Match abandoned without a ball bowled
• 7 Nov vs New Zealand (A): W – IND 113/7 (26), NZ 134/10 (41)
• 4 Nov vs New Zealand (A): W – IND 143/5 (22.4), NZ 185/10 (40.2)
• 3 Oct vs West Indies (H): L – IND 351/7, WI 352/5 (48.2)

In 21 ODIs between these sides, New Zealand have won 8 and India 12, with one no-result. India hold the overall edge, but New Zealand have seized momentum in this series. The last five meetings read:

• 13 Nov 2026 at Bay Oval: New Zealand won by 244 runs
• 10 Nov 2026 at Seddon Park: Match abandoned without a ball bowled
• 7 Nov 2026 at Sky Stadium: India won by 4 runs (D/L method)
• 4 Nov 2026 at Eden Park: India won by 5 wickets (with 56 balls remaining) (D/L method)
• 18 Jan 2026 at Holkar Cricket Stadium: New Zealand won by 41 runs

In the last 25 meetings, Daryl Mitchell leads New Zealand’s run-scorers with 824 runs across 13 matches, while Virat Kohli tops India’s charts with 1,086 runs from 22 matches. For New Zealand, Matt Henry has taken 16 wickets in just 4 matches against India; for India, Kuldeep Yadav has claimed 27 wickets across 7 meetings.

The Statz projections favour India as a slight lean, with both scenarios producing similar outcomes.

If New Zealand bat first: Projected first-innings total of 322.2, match total of 623.4. Win probability – NZ 45.4%, India 51.6%, tie/no-result 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 267 to 373.

If India bat first: Projected first-innings total of 326, match total of 628.3. Win probability – NZ 45.5%, India 51.5%, tie/no-result 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 274 to 372.

The projected match total of 626 is 87.2 runs above the Bay Oval average of 538.8, suggesting both batting lineups will come to the crease in confident mood. Both projected first-innings totals sit well above the ground average of 285.8 – New Zealand’s 322.2 is 36.4 runs above, while India’s 326 is 40.2 runs above. Match total P10-P90 range: 548 to 704.

New Zealand – One Day Internationals 2026

Runs: Daryl Mitchell – 556 runs, 61.78 a match, HS 137 | Will Young – 496 runs, 33.07 a match, HS 125 | Henry Nicholls – 255 runs, 18.21 a match, HS 68

Wickets: Jayden Lennox – 22 wickets, 2.2 a match | Jacob Duffy – 11 wickets, 1.38 a match | Kyle Jamieson – 11 wickets, 1.57 a match

India – One Day Internationals 2026

Runs: Shubman Gill – 932 runs, 62.13 a match, HS 223 | Virat Kohli – 633 runs, 48.69 a match, HS 139 | Rohit Sharma – 627 runs, 39.19 a match, HS 138

Wickets: Gurnoor Brar – 23 wickets, 1.77 a match | Prasidh Krishna – 16 wickets, 1.78 a match | Arshdeep Singh – 13 wickets, 1.63 a match

New Zealand (based on XI vs India, 13 Nov 2026)

1. Will Young
2. Tim Seifert (wk)
3. Nick Kelly
4. Dean Foxcroft
5. Finn Allen
6. Michael Bracewell
7. Mitchell Santner (c)
8. Kristian Clarke
9. Kyle Jamieson
10. Matt Henry
11. Matthew Fisher

India (based on XI vs New Zealand, 13 Nov 2026)

1. Rohit Sharma
2. Ruturaj Gaikwad
3. Virat Kohli
4. Shreyas Iyer (c)
5. Ishan Kishan (wk)
6. Axar Patel
7. Naman Dhir
8. Auqib Nabi
9. Kuldeep Yadav
10. Gurnoor Brar
11. Arshdeep Singh

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Captain: Shubman Gill (India) – projected 125.9 points. The India opener has 932 runs this cycle at 62.13 a match and sits atop the competition’s run-scoring charts. A 73.3% hit rate for 20+ runs makes him the safest captain choice.

Vice Captain: Rohit Sharma (India) – projected 125.2 points. India’s senior batter with 627 runs at 39.19 a match. A 62.5% season hit rate for 20+ runs and projected 62.2 runs underline his consistency.

Also consider:

• Daryl Mitchell (NZ) – projected 111.5 points – 556 season runs at 61.78 a match with an 88.9% hit rate for 20+ runs
• Virat Kohli (India) – projected 101.2 points – 633 season runs at 48.69 a match, the competition’s second-leading run-scorer
• Gurnoor Brar (India) – projected 121.4 points – 23 wickets this cycle, the competition’s second-leading wicket-taker with a 76.9% hit rate for 1+ wicket

Shubman Gill (India)

India’s standout batter this cycle. Gill has amassed 932 runs at 62.13 a match with a high score of 223, sitting atop the competition’s run-scoring charts. His 73.3% hit rate for 20+ runs this season and 40% rate in his last five matches show a player in commanding form. The Statz projections have him scoring 65.8 runs if India bat first and 60.8 if they chase.

Daryl Mitchell (New Zealand)

New Zealand’s premier all-rounder. Mitchell has 556 runs at 61.78 a match this cycle, leading his side’s run-scoring charts. His 88.9% hit rate for 20+ runs – including 80% in his last five – is among the most reliable in the tournament. Projected for 57.1 runs in this match, he is the backbone of New Zealand’s batting.

Gurnoor Brar (India)

India’s leading wicket-taker this cycle with 23 wickets at 1.77 a match. Brar has taken 2+ wickets in 61.5% of his matches and 1+ in 76.9% – a bowler who consistently makes an impact. His 60% hit rate for 2+ wickets in his last five matches shows he is hitting his straps at the right time.

Jayden Lennox (New Zealand)

New Zealand’s spearhead with 22 wickets this cycle at 2.2 a match. Lennox has taken a wicket in 100% of his matches this season and 2+ wickets in 60% of them. His last three returns of 4, 1 and 3 wickets show a bowler operating at peak intensity.

India are the slight favourites here. The Statz projections give India a 51.6% win probability if New Zealand bat first and 51.5% if India bat first – a lean rather than a strong conviction. India’s batting depth, led by Shubman Gill‘s 932 runs this cycle, gives them the edge, but New Zealand’s recent form – a 244-run demolition two days ago – cannot be ignored. This is a dead rubber, which may affect intensity, but both sides will want to finish the series on a high.

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture. With no best bets available from the payload, focus on the season-long form: Daryl Mitchell’s 88.9% hit rate for 20+ runs is the standout angle for New Zealand, while Shubman Gill’s 73.3% rate for the same metric is India’s most bankable batting line.

Q: Who will win New Zealand vs India?

A: India are slight favourites at 51.6% win probability if New Zealand bat first, and 51.5% if India bat first. New Zealand’s recent form is strong, but India’s batting depth gives them the edge in a dead-rubber contest.

Q: What is the projected score?

A: The projected match total is 626 runs, 87.2 runs above the Bay Oval average of 538.8. If New Zealand bat first, expect around 322 in the first innings and 623 overall; if India bat first, around 326 and 628.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?

A: The toss carries no meaningful advantage at this venue. Both sides win marginally better bowling first (by just 0.1 points), so expect the captain to assess conditions on the day rather than follow a set pattern.

Q: Is India a good bet?

A: India’s 51.6% win probability represents a lean rather than a strong conviction. While their batting – led by Shubman Gill’s 932 runs this cycle – is formidable, New Zealand’s 244-run victory two days ago shows they are capable of dominance. Nothing is guaranteed in a dead rubber where both sides may rotate.