Lillestrøm have the biggest shortfall in the Eliteserien: 24 points from chances worth 37.6 xPts, a gap of 13.6. At the other end, Viking have taken 57 points from an xPts figure of 44.3, 12.7 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brann | 15 | 26 | 32.1 | -6.1 | 14 | 15.4 | -1.4 | +12 | 16.6 | -4.6 | 30 | 30.6 | -0.6 |
| 2 | Molde | 15 | 39 | 34.0 | +5.0 | 23 | 16.9 | +6.1 | +16 | 17.2 | -1.2 | 27 | 30.5 | -3.5 |
| 3 | Bodø / Glimt | 14 | 43 | 31.4 | +11.6 | 15 | 12.6 | +2.4 | +28 | 18.7 | +9.3 | 31 | 29.8 | +1.2 |
| 4 | Rosenborg | 15 | 26 | 27.3 | -1.3 | 14 | 16.0 | -2.0 | +12 | 11.3 | +0.7 | 32 | 26.8 | +5.2 |
| 5 | Viking | 15 | 34 | 27.8 | +6.2 | 18 | 18.8 | -0.8 | +16 | 9.0 | +7.0 | 34 | 26.0 | +8.0 |
| 6 | Fredrikstad | 15 | 19 | 27.1 | -8.1 | 15 | 18.8 | -3.8 | +4 | 8.3 | -4.3 | 27 | 25.6 | +1.4 |
| 7 | KFUM | 15 | 14 | 19.6 | -5.6 | 20 | 12.7 | +7.3 | -6 | 6.9 | -12.9 | 13 | 24.9 | -11.9 |
| 8 | Tromsø | 15 | 24 | 25.3 | -1.3 | 21 | 21.5 | -0.5 | +3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 19 | 23.3 | -4.3 |
| 9 | Kristiansund | 15 | 19 | 26.0 | -7.0 | 23 | 22.6 | +0.4 | -4 | 3.4 | -7.4 | 21 | 23.1 | -2.1 |
| 10 | Sandefjord | 15 | 23 | 24.2 | -1.2 | 21 | 20.0 | +1.0 | +2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 23 | 22.9 | +0.1 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 | 15 | 18 | 24.2 | -6.2 | 28 | 22.7 | +5.3 | -10 | 1.4 | -11.4 | 15 | 22.1 | -7.1 |
| 12 | Lillestrøm | 15 | 16 | 23.7 | -7.7 | 30 | 22.3 | +7.7 | -14 | 1.3 | -15.3 | 12 | 21.4 | -9.4 |
| 13 | Strømsgodset | 14 | 19 | 26.1 | -7.1 | 13 | 23.2 | -10.2 | +6 | 2.8 | +3.2 | 25 | 20.8 | +4.2 |
| 14 | Haugesund | 15 | 11 | 22.0 | -11.0 | 16 | 23.6 | -7.6 | -5 | -1.6 | -3.4 | 19 | 20.4 | -1.4 |
| 15 | HamKam | 15 | 15 | 16.8 | -1.8 | 17 | 25.4 | -8.4 | -2 | -8.6 | +6.6 | 16 | 15.0 | +1.0 |
| 16 | Odd | 15 | 16 | 17.0 | -1.0 | 29 | 27.2 | +1.8 | -13 | -10.2 | -2.8 | 13 | 14.5 | -1.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Molde | 15 | 25 | 28.6 | -3.6 | 13 | 16.6 | -3.6 | +12 | 12.1 | -0.1 | 25 | 27.8 | -2.8 |
| 2 | Bodø / Glimt | 14 | 26 | 25.0 | +1.0 | 16 | 17.8 | -1.8 | +10 | 7.1 | +2.9 | 25 | 23.6 | +1.4 |
| 3 | Brann | 15 | 29 | 24.9 | +4.1 | 19 | 22.4 | -3.4 | +10 | 2.6 | +7.4 | 29 | 22.3 | +6.7 |
| 4 | Rosenborg | 15 | 26 | 28.8 | -2.8 | 25 | 29.9 | -4.9 | +1 | -1.1 | +2.1 | 21 | 21.3 | -0.3 |
| 5 | Sarpsborg 08 | 15 | 25 | 22.8 | +2.2 | 27 | 26.6 | +0.4 | -2 | -3.8 | +1.8 | 22 | 19.1 | +2.9 |
| 6 | KFUM | 15 | 21 | 14.9 | +6.1 | 16 | 16.4 | -0.4 | +5 | -1.5 | +6.5 | 24 | 18.6 | +5.4 |
| 7 | Viking | 14 | 27 | 19.7 | +7.3 | 20 | 21.2 | -1.2 | +7 | -1.6 | +8.6 | 23 | 18.2 | +4.8 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 15 | 20 | 18.2 | +1.8 | 20 | 21.9 | -1.9 | +0 | -3.7 | +3.7 | 24 | 18.1 | +5.9 |
| 9 | Lillestrøm | 15 | 17 | 19.3 | -2.3 | 33 | 27.8 | +5.2 | -16 | -8.5 | -7.5 | 12 | 16.2 | -4.2 |
| 10 | Sandefjord | 15 | 18 | 18.7 | -0.7 | 25 | 28.4 | -3.4 | -7 | -9.7 | +2.7 | 11 | 15.5 | -4.5 |
| 11 | Haugesund | 15 | 18 | 19.1 | -1.1 | 30 | 29.9 | +0.1 | -12 | -10.8 | -1.2 | 14 | 15.3 | -1.3 |
| 12 | Tromsø | 15 | 10 | 16.6 | -6.6 | 23 | 27.7 | -4.7 | -13 | -11.2 | -1.8 | 14 | 15.0 | -1.0 |
| 13 | HamKam | 15 | 19 | 17.2 | +1.8 | 22 | 27.0 | -5.0 | -3 | -9.8 | +6.8 | 17 | 14.9 | +2.1 |
| 14 | Strømsgodset | 15 | 13 | 18.3 | -5.3 | 26 | 31.9 | -5.9 | -13 | -13.6 | +0.6 | 13 | 13.6 | -0.6 |
| 15 | Kristiansund | 15 | 13 | 14.2 | -1.2 | 22 | 30.1 | -8.1 | -9 | -15.9 | +6.9 | 13 | 11.8 | +1.2 |
| 16 | Odd | 15 | 10 | 13.7 | -3.7 | 25 | 29.0 | -4.0 | -15 | -15.3 | +0.3 | 10 | 11.5 | -1.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø / Glimt | 5 | 14 | 11.4 | +2.6 | 10 | 5.2 | +4.8 | +4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 8 | 10.5 | -2.5 |
| 2 | Brann | 5 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | +7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | 10 | 10.5 | -0.5 |
| 3 | Rosenborg | 5 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 | +8 | 3.5 | +4.5 | 13 | 9.4 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Molde | 5 | 10 | 13.8 | -3.8 | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | +3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 5 | Sarpsborg 08 | 5 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | +1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 |
| 6 | Viking | 5 | 12 | 8.0 | +4.0 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | +7 | 1.7 | +5.3 | 13 | 7.6 | +5.4 |
| 7 | Fredrikstad | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | +0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 8 | KFUM | 5 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | -2 | 0.1 | -2.1 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 |
| 9 | Sandefjord | 5 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | +3 | -0.9 | +3.9 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 |
| 10 | Haugesund | 5 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | 9 | 10.3 | -1.3 | -3 | -2.3 | -0.7 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 |
| 11 | Lillestrøm | 5 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 | 11 | 9.1 | +1.9 | -5 | -1.6 | -3.4 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| 12 | Tromsø | 5 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 11 | 9.0 | +2.0 | -5 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 13 | Strømsgodset | 5 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 8.7 | -5.7 | +1 | -2.2 | +3.2 | 9 | 5.7 | +3.3 |
| 14 | Kristiansund | 5 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 | -5 | -3.3 | -1.7 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Odd | 5 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | -10 | -4.1 | -5.9 | 0 | 4.2 | -4.2 |
| 16 | HamKam | 5 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | -4 | -6.2 | +2.2 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
Viking overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Eliteserien in 2024, with 61 goals from chances worth 47.5 xG, a gap of 13.5. Bodø / Glimt were next on 12.7.
Strømsgodset underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Eliteserien in 2024, with 32 goals from chances worth 44.4 xG, a shortfall of 12.4. Haugesund were next on 12.1.
Viking were the luckiest side in the Eliteserien in 2024, with 57 points from performances worth 44.3 xPts, 12.7 more than their chances deserved. Fredrikstad were next on 7.4.
Lillestrøm were the unluckiest side in the Eliteserien in 2024, with 24 points from performances worth 37.6 xPts, 13.6 short of what they deserved. KFUM were next on 6.5.
Molde would be top of the Eliteserien in 2024 on expected points, with 58.3 xPts from 62.7 xG created and 33.4 conceded across 30 matches. Bodø / Glimt were next on 53.4.
Molde created the most xG in the Eliteserien in 2024, 62.7 from 30 matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Brann were next on 57.0.
Odd created the least xG in the Eliteserien in 2024, 30.8 from 30 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. HamKam were next on 34.0.
Odd conceded the most xG in the Eliteserien in 2024, 56.2 from 30 matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Strømsgodset were next on 55.2.
KFUM conceded the least xG in the Eliteserien in 2024, 29.1 from 30 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Bodø / Glimt were next on 30.5.
Eliteserien teams averaged 1.52 xG a game in 2024, from the 238 matches played, and scored 1.43 goals a game from it.
Eliteserien teams created more xG at home in 2024, 1.70 a game against 1.34 away, a home advantage of +0.36.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Molde | 30 | 64 | 62.7 | +1.3 | 36 | 33.4 | +2.6 | +28 | 29.2 | -1.2 | 52 | 58.3 | -6.3 |
| 2 | Bodø / Glimt | 28 | 69 | 56.3 | +12.7 | 31 | 30.5 | +0.5 | +38 | 25.9 | +12.1 | 56 | 53.4 | +2.6 |
| 3 | Brann | 30 | 55 | 57.0 | -2.0 | 33 | 37.8 | -4.8 | +22 | 19.2 | +2.8 | 59 | 52.9 | +6.1 |
| 4 | Rosenborg | 30 | 52 | 56.1 | -4.1 | 39 | 46.0 | -7.0 | +13 | 10.2 | +2.8 | 53 | 48.1 | +4.9 |
| 5 | Viking | 29 | 61 | 47.5 | +13.5 | 38 | 40.0 | -2.0 | +23 | 7.5 | +15.5 | 57 | 44.3 | +12.7 |
| 6 | Fredrikstad | 30 | 39 | 45.3 | -6.3 | 35 | 40.7 | -5.7 | +4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 51 | 43.6 | +7.4 |
| 7 | KFUM | 30 | 35 | 34.5 | +0.5 | 36 | 29.1 | +6.9 | -1 | 5.5 | -6.5 | 37 | 43.5 | -6.5 |
| 8 | Sarpsborg 08 | 30 | 43 | 47.0 | -4.0 | 55 | 49.4 | +5.6 | -12 | -2.4 | -9.6 | 37 | 41.2 | -4.2 |
| 9 | Sandefjord | 30 | 41 | 42.9 | -1.9 | 46 | 48.4 | -2.4 | -5 | -5.5 | +0.5 | 34 | 38.5 | -4.5 |
| 10 | Tromsø | 30 | 34 | 41.8 | -7.8 | 44 | 49.2 | -5.2 | -10 | -7.3 | -2.7 | 33 | 38.4 | -5.4 |
| 11 | Lillestrøm | 30 | 33 | 43.0 | -10.0 | 63 | 50.1 | +12.9 | -30 | -7.2 | -22.8 | 24 | 37.6 | -13.6 |
| 12 | Haugesund | 30 | 29 | 41.1 | -12.1 | 46 | 53.5 | -7.5 | -17 | -12.4 | -4.6 | 33 | 35.8 | -2.8 |
| 13 | Kristiansund | 30 | 32 | 40.2 | -8.2 | 45 | 52.7 | -7.7 | -13 | -12.5 | -0.5 | 34 | 34.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | Strømsgodset | 29 | 32 | 44.4 | -12.4 | 39 | 55.2 | -16.2 | -7 | -10.8 | +3.8 | 38 | 34.4 | +3.6 |
| 15 | HamKam | 30 | 34 | 34.0 | +0.0 | 39 | 52.4 | -13.4 | -5 | -18.4 | +13.4 | 33 | 29.8 | +3.2 |
| 16 | Odd | 30 | 26 | 30.8 | -4.8 | 54 | 56.2 | -2.2 | -28 | -25.5 | -2.5 | 23 | 26.0 | -3.0 |